Reading TLF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TLF free→Reading TLF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TLF free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 141% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.31 TLF trades at 37× p/e — 2.4× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $0.96 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 141% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.39x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$82.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$242.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,755.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Positive sales growth shows management is trying to increase revenue.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported above $19.65M, showing growth from Q1.
Disproves:Q2 revenue was below $19.65M, showing a decline.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TLF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On June 9, 2026, the Board of Directors approved certain changes to the compensation of the Board and Committee Members. The annual cash retainer fees paid to the non-employee directors are increased to $20,000. The chair of the Audit Committee is paid an additional $7,000; members of the Audit Committee (including the Chair) are paid an additional…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TLF Tandy Leather Factory Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to return to operating profitability by focusing on sales growth in 2026.
Management is concentrating on continuing sales growth to support profitability goals.
Why it matters: This report could change how consumers spend money, affecting Tandy Leather's sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth over 1% from last month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline under 0% from last month.
of this report and the exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended (the “Exchange Act”, or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing of the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), whether made before or after the date hereof, except a…
of this report and the exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended (the “Exchange Act”, or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing of the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), whether made before or after the date hereof, except a…
of this report and the exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended (the “Exchange Act”, or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing of the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), whether made before or after the date hereof, except a…
of this report and the exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended (the “Exchange Act”, or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing of the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), whether made before or after the date hereof, except a…