Reading THRY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track THRY free→Reading THRY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track THRY free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, THRY is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.84 THRY trades at 3× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $31 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 88% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.09 → $-0.11 (-222.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$318.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$739.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,484.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal a broader slowdown affecting Thryv.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median in the next quarterly report.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median in the next quarterly report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for THRY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Thryv Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings f or the three months ended March 31, 2026 . This press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
THRY Thryv Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Thryv aims to achieve Marketing Services Revenue between $157 million and $163 million for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Marketing Services Revenue guidance for 2026 is $157 to $163 million. The company has shifted focus from a prior decline in FY-25, indicating a strategic emphasis on growth in this segment. Limited progress is evident as the financials do not yet reflect this target.
“Thryv is issuing guidance for full year 2026: Marketing Services Revenue $157 to $163 million.”
“Company expects FY-25 MS revenue decline of ~32% to ~33%.”
Thryv has set a total company revenue guidance of $620 million to $634 million for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total Company Revenue guidance for 2026 is $620 to $634 million. This represents a strategic shift from the FY-25 revenue decline of ~4% to ~5%. The trajectory shows a focus on reversing previous declines, though current financials do not yet reflect this growth.
“Thryv is issuing guidance for full year 2026: Total Company Revenue $620 to $634 million.”
Thryv targets Marketing Services Adjusted EBITDA between $30 million and $35 million for Q3 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Marketing Services Adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q3 2026 is $30 to $35 million. This is a new target for the company, indicating a focus on improving profitability in this segment. Current financials do not yet show progress towards this target.
“Thryv is issuing guidance for Q3 2026: Marketing Services Adjusted EBITDA $30 to $35 million.”
Why it matters: The earnings results will show if the company can grow revenue in a slowing sector.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth falls below 0% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026 , Thryv Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings f or the year ended December 31, 2025 . This press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 5, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of Thryv Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) approved a one-time, cash retention bonus (a “Retention Bonus”) for certain critical employees of the Company, including the following named executive officers (each, an “NEO Participant”): • Grant Freeman, President; • John Wholey, Chie…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 30, 2025, Thryv Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings f or the nine months ended September 30, 2025 . This press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2025, Thryv Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings f or the six months ended June 30, 2025 . This press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
“Company expects FY-25 revenue decline of ~4% to ~5%.”