Reading TDUP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TDUP free→Reading TDUP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TDUP free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryInternet RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with TDUP trading below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 148% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends from major players like AMZN and BABA. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.21 TDUP trades at 2× p/s — 2.4× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $2.13 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 145% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.45x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.04 → $-0.03 (+25.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$266.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$585.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,425.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
CEO's strategy aligns with growth in resale market.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 4, 2026, ThredUp Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, a copy of the supplemental financial information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2. The press release and supplemental financial information are incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Broadline Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TDUP ThredUp, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | expensive | high |
AMZN Amazon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | — | — | elevated |
PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | — | — | elevated |
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
ThredUp aims to achieve revenue between $351.2 million and $356.2 million for the full fiscal year 2026.
ThredUp targets a gross margin range of 78.5% to 79.5% for the fiscal year 2026.
ThredUp aims to achieve an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 6.0% for the fiscal year 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 2, 2026, ThredUp Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, a copy of the supplemental financial information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2. The press release and supplemental financial information are incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Repo…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 30, 2026, ThredUp Inc. (the “Company”) together with certain of its subsidiaries as co-borrowers (collectively with the Company, the “Borrowers”) entered into that certain Amendment No. 2 to Second Amended and Restated Loan and Security Agreement (the “Amendment”) with the lenders party thereto (the “Lenders”) and Western Alliance Bank, as agent (the “Agent”). The Amendment amends that certain Second Amended and Restated Loan and Security…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure required by this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) On November 14, 2025, the board of directors (the “Board”) of ThredUp Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Kelly Bodnar Battles to the Board as a Class II director, effective as of December 1, 2025. The Board also elected Ms. Battles to serve as chair of the Audit Committee of the Board, effective as of December 1, 2025 and determined that she is an…