Reading KSS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KSS free→Reading KSS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KSS free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 KSS trades at 11× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $26 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $8.00–$15. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 34% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.12x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.55 → $0.55 (+0.6% / 30d). 6 raised, 3 cut, 12 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 15% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -39.4% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$279.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$596.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,182.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength and care for shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend is paid as scheduled on June 24, 2026.
Disproves:Dividend payment is late or canceled.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
New COO may enhance operational efficiency and execution.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On June 10, 2026, Elliott Rodgers accepted his appointment as Chief Operating Officer of Kohl’s Corporation (the “Company”). Mr. Rodgers’ appointment will be effective September 9, 2026. Mr. Rodgers, age 50, served as Executive Vice President, Chief Operations Officer at Foot Locker, Inc. from December 2022 to September 2025. Prior to joining Foot…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$8.00 – $15.00 (median $9.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Broadline Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KSS Kohl's Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | — | — | elevated |
PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | — | — | elevated |
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain capital expenditures in the range of $350 million to $400 million for fiscal year 2026.
Continue to declare a quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share.
Focus on surpassing earnings expectations as a strategic goal.
Why it matters: This will show if the recent sales decline is turning around or continuing.
Confirms:Q2 sales are up from last year. They beat a 1.1% drop.
Disproves:Q2 comparable sales decline further year over year.
Why it matters: A bigger drop shows ongoing sales problems. This can hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Comparable sales decline worse than -1.1% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Comparable sales stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: A lower EPS shows weaker earnings. This can change how the market sees the company.
Confirms:Adjusted diluted EPS was below $1.00 for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted diluted EPS meets or exceeds $1.00.
Why it matters: A confirmed earnings beat would show Kohl's is managing costs well and growing profits.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows earnings per share above $0.50.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows earnings per share below $0.50.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost control and pricing power.
Confirms:Adjusted operating margin is more than 3.4% in Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted operating margin is less than 2.8% in Q2.
Why it matters: This report may change how consumers feel and spend. It can affect Kohl's sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows decline worse than -0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good money management.
Confirms:Capital spending is between $350M and $400M.
Disproves:Capital spending is over $400M.
Why it matters: More spending may show management's trouble with costs. This can hurt profits.
Confirms:Spending was over $400 million in 2026.
Disproves:Spending is between $350 million and $400 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
The information in Items 2.02 and 7.01, including the exhibits attached hereto, is furnished solely pursuant to Items 2.02 and 7.01 of Form 8-K. Consequently, such information is not deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Further, the information in Items 2.02 and 7.01, including the exhibits, shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of the registrant under the S…
Other Events . As previously announced, on May 20, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share. The dividend will be paid on June 24, 2026, to all shareholders of record at the close of business on June 10, 2026. Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information and Non-GAAP Measures This current report on Form 8-K contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Th…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (e) Approval of Kohl’s Corporation 2024 Long-Term Compensation Plan, as amended and restated effective May 20, 2026 At the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”) of Kohl’s Corporation (the “Company” or “Kohl’s”), the Company’s shareholders approved the Kohl’s Corporation 2024 Long-Term Compensation Plan, as amended and restated e…
Other Events On May 20, 2026, the Board of Directors of Kohl's Corporation ("the Company") declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share. The dividend will be payable on June 24, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 10, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the dividend is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. On May 20, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing events that took place in connection with i…