Reading RVLV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RVLV free→Reading RVLV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RVLV free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryInternet RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, RVLV is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Watch for guidance changes and sector trends for potential impacts. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 RVLV trades at 23× p/e — 1.5× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $15 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $26–$32. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 40% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.99x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.22 (-6.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$185.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$477.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,432.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and became expensive. Risk remained elevated. The sector backdrop was noted as a headwind. The management dimension was stable.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the company is doing and what the market is like.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows better than expected sales and profit margins.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows worse than expected sales and profit margins.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RVLV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibit attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in any such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$26.00 – $32.00 (median $28.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Broadline Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RVLV Revolve Group, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | — | — | elevated |
PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | — | — | elevated |
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Revolve aims to maintain its gross margin guidance between 53.5% and 54.0% for FY 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin guidance for FY 2026 is 53.5% to 54.0%. Gross profit increased from $154.3M in 2025-Q1 to $180.6M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards maintaining margins. The trajectory is delivering on maintaining the guidance range.
“Updated FY 2026 Outlook Gross margin 53.5% to 54.0%.”
“FY 2026 Outlook Gross margin 53.7% to 54.2%.”
“Updated FY 2025 Outlook Gross margin 52.1% to 52.6%.”
Revolve aims to control general and administrative expenses between $164 million and $168 million for FY 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. General and administrative expenses guidance is $164M to $168M. Operating income decreased from $20.6M in 2025-Q4 to $15.7M in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for tighter cost control. The trajectory shows limited progress in controlling expenses.
Revolve aims to increase cash generated from operating activities.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities increased to $49.42M in 2026-Q1 from negative $10.19M in 2025-Q4, showing significant improvement. The trajectory is delivering on increasing cash generation from operations.
Why it matters: Retail sales data will show how consumers are spending. This affects Revolve's business.
Confirms one read:Retail sales data shows a significant increase month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales data shows a significant decrease month over month.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 18, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of Revolve Group, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Erinn Murphy to serve as a member of the Board, effective immediately. The Board also appointed Ms. Murphy to serve as a member and chairperson of the Audit Committee and as a member of the Compensation Committee. Since September 2023, Ms. Murph…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibit attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in any such filing.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 2, 2026, Revolve Group, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a First Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “First Amendment”) to that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of March 23, 2021 (as amended by that certain LIBOR Transition Amendment, dated as of May 11, 2023, the “Credit Agreement”), by and among Alliance Apparel Group, Inc., Eminent, Inc. and Advance Development, Inc., as borrowers (each a “B…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
“General and administrative expenses $164 million to $168 million.”
“Cash from operating activities increased to $49.42 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was negative $10.19 million.”