Reading M? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track M free→Reading M? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track M free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, M is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 M trades at 11× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $36 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $9.00–$23. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.35 → $0.34 (-1.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 4 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 15% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -2.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 200.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$173.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$377.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,861.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Macy's is controlling costs well. This may help investors feel good.
Confirms:Q1 operating income is over $500M. This shows Macy's is managing costs strongly.
Disproves:Q1 operating income is under $400M. This shows Macy's still faces cost issues.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Legal challenges may impact operational focus and costs.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 3, 2026, Macy’s, Inc. (“Macy’s” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing Macy’s financial condition, results of operations and cash flows as of and for the 13 weeks ended May 2, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Macy’s reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). The press release referr…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$9.00 – $23.00 (median $22.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Broadline Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
M Macy's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AMZN Amazon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | — | — | elevated |
PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | — | — | elevated |
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue the Reimagine 200 stores initiative to drive comparable sales growth.
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities to strengthen financial position.
Continue efforts to improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: This shows sales are slowing down. This can hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 sales growth was below 0.5%.
Disproves:Q2 comparable sales growth exceeds 1.2%.
Why it matters: This could mean lower earnings and may upset investors.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted diluted EPS was less than $2.00.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted diluted EPS was more than $2.20.
Why it matters: An increase means better profit and efficiency.
Confirms:Adjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2026 is raised above $2.20.
Disproves:Guidance for adjusted diluted EPS remains at or below $2.00.
Why it matters: Progress on this initiative is key for Macy's growth strategy. Delays could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Management gives a good update on the Reimagine 200 stores plan.
Disproves:Management says there are problems or delays with the Reimagine 200 stores plan.
Why it matters: A drop could mean worse cash flow. This can affect future investments.
Confirms:Cash from operations was below $1.4 billion.
Disproves:Cash from operations is over $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects Macy's sales. A drop could signal trouble ahead.
Confirms:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth below 2% year over year.
Disproves:Retail sales growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher cash from operations means Macy's is generating more cash. This supports future investments.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases above $1.4B in Q1.
Disproves:Cash from operations drops below $1.2B in Q1.
Legal ruling affects labor costs and operational efficiency.
Legal ruling could increase operational costs.
Advances: Reimagine 200 stores initiative
Strong Q1 performance supports growth initiatives.
Advances: Enhance cash from operating activities
Raising forecasts indicates improved cash flow.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 15, 2026, at the annual meeting of shareholders of Macy’s, Inc. (“Macy’s”), shareholders approved the amendment and restatement of the Macy’s, Inc. 2024 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan (the “Amended and Restated 2024 Plan”). The Amended and Restated 2024 Plan had been approved by the Board of Directors of Macy’s on March 26, 2026, subj…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 25, 2026, Richard Clark, Douglas W. Sesler and Tracey Zhen notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Macy’s, Inc. (“Macy’s” or the “Company”) of their intention not to stand for re-election to the Board at the Company’s annual meeting of shareholders to be held on May 15, 2026 (the “2026 Annual Meeting”). The decisions of Mr. Clark,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 18, 2026 , Macy’s, Inc. (“Macy’s” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing Macy’s financial condition, results of operations and cash flows as of and for the 13 and 52 weeks ended January 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Macy’s reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). The press…