Macy's (M)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-10-23

$24.10-0.29%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Macy's’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.38 → 2.36 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-01
Revenue	—	4.68B
EPS	—	-0.171
Quarter ending 2027-01-31
Revenue	—	7.55B
EPS	—	1.729
Annual ending 2027-01-31
Revenue	—	21.78B
EPS	—	2.309
Annual ending 2028-01-31
Revenue	—	21.59B
EPS	—	2.357

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Positive cash from operating activities	Cash from operating activities turned positive at $292 million in Q1.	Under Pressure	Cash from operating activities falls below $0 next quarter	Cash from operations: $294M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=292 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 10, 2026294,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Comparable sales growth driven by Reimagine 200 stores	The Reimagine 200 stores initiative is driving 2.4% comparable sales growth.	Under Pressure	Comparable sales growth falls below 1.6% YoY next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Macy's comparable sales including Reimagine 200 stores rose from 0.9% growth in 2025-Q4 to 1.9% in 2026-Q3, with Reimagine locations consistently outperforming overall Macy's comparable sales. Management has reiterated investments in this initiative each quarter and the trajectory is delivering sustained comparable sales growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improvement	Operating income rose to $112 million, showing better cost control.	Improving	Operating income falls below $94 million next quarter	Operating income: $244M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=112 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 10, 2026244,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6899582d-8d3e-4a97-8809-fb47a740ffb8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize or improve revenue	A primary condition in Macy's's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline less than 7% YoY.	Under Pressure	Revenue decline exceeds 7% YoY next fiscal year	Revenue: $5.059B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue decline less than 7% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Sep 10, 20265,059,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6899582d-8d3e-4a97-8809-fb47a740ffb8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$2.36

$2.28 → $2.36 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$21.59B

$21.39B → $21.59B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-07-31	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-08	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-13	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-15	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-16	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-17	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-18	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-19	$2.28	$21,388,036,847	7 / 6
2026-08-20	$2.31	$21,478,326,678	7 / 6
2026-08-21	$2.31	$21,478,326,678	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$2.31	$21,478,326,678	7 / 7
2026-08-23	$2.31	$21,478,326,678	7 / 7
2026-08-24	$2.31	$21,478,326,678	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$2.31	$21,478,326,678	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$2.31	$21,478,326,678	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$2.31	$21,478,326,678	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$2.33	$21,480,487,491	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$2.33	$21,480,487,491	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$2.33	$21,480,487,491	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$2.33	$21,480,487,491	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$2.33	$21,480,487,491	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$2.33	$21,480,487,491	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$2.33	$21,480,487,491	7 / 7
2026-09-04	$2.33	$21,480,487,491	7 / 7
2026-09-05	$2.33	$21,480,487,491	7 / 7
2026-09-06	$2.33	$21,480,487,491	7 / 7
2026-09-07	$2.33	$21,480,487,491	7 / 7
2026-09-08	$2.33	$21,491,737,491	7 / 7
2026-09-09	$2.33	$21,491,737,491	7 / 7
2026-09-10	$2.33	$21,491,737,491	7 / 7
2026-09-11	$2.36	$21,510,568,054	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$2.37	$21,544,318,054	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$2.37	$21,544,318,054	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$2.37	$21,544,318,054	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$2.37	$21,544,318,054	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$2.38	$21,552,443,054	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$2.38	$21,552,443,054	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-09-26	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-09-27	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-09-28	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-09-29	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-09-30	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-01	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-02	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-07	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-08	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-09	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-10	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-11	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-12	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-13	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-14	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-16	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-17	$2.38	$21,578,662,455	7 / 7
2026-10-18	$2.37	$21,592,537,455	7 / 7
2026-10-19	$2.37	$21,592,537,455	7 / 7
2026-10-20	$2.37	$21,592,537,455	7 / 7
2026-10-21	$2.37	$21,592,537,455	7 / 7
2026-10-22	$2.36	$21,592,537,455	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$2.36	$21,592,537,455	7 / 7
2026-10-24	$2.36	$21,592,537,455	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	9	1
2026-06-01	2	10	1
2026-07-01	2	10	1
2026-08-01	2	10	1
2026-09-01	3	10	1
2026-10-01	2	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Positive cash from operating activitiesPublished status: Under Pressure
Comparable sales growth driven by Reimagine 200 storesPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating income improvementOperating income: $244M
Stabilize or improve revenuePublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Dec 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Macy's outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

M is a retail recovery and execution story, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry and robust earnings quality. Its multi-year view is intact, supported by progress in store reinvestment and comparable sales, though management is rated neutral and near-term risk is moderate.

What's priced into Macy's

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and its valuation reading has recently declined. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low signs of fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market may still be cautious about the outlook.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the recent earnings beats and rising comparable sales provide support, though past earnings have been erratic and include a deep miss. Over the multi-year view, Reimagine 200 stores is on track, while growth across nameplates is progressing but remains an area to watch; share repurchases and dividends are also continuing.

What Macy's hinges on

A key downside risk is management reversing its recent guidance increase, which could damage credibility. Sector signals also matter: continued earnings strength and higher guidance from bellwethers could support the consumer discretionary backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.