Reading OLLI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OLLI free→Reading OLLI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OLLI free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although OLLI trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The valuation is priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $85.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $85 the market pays 21× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 29× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $63 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $87–$155. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 34% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.17 → $1.15 (-1.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 11 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 46.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$144.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$372.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,729.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would signal weakening demand and could impact the company's growth outlook.
Confirms:Comparable store sales growth reported below 1.5% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Comparable store sales growth exceeds 1.5% for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OLLI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of on this Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$87.00 – $155.00 (median $125.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Broadline Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | — | — | elevated |
PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | — | — | elevated |
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ollie's aims to achieve net sales between $2.98 billion and $3 billion for fiscal 2026.
Ollie's is raising its earnings per share outlook to between $4.45 and $4.55 for fiscal 2026.
Ollie's targets a gross margin of approximately 40.5% for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a shift in the growth phase for the sector.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the last two years.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the last two years.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin might mean costs are rising. This can hurt profits.
Confirms:Gross margin reported below 40.5% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross margin remains at or above 40.5% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Opening more stores than planned may show strong growth. It suggests a good expansion plan.
Confirms:More than 20 new stores opened in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Fewer than 20 new stores opened in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to reaching the $3 billion target in fiscal 2026. Strong results would support management's growth strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance means better profits are expected. It shows growth is likely.
Confirms:Management raises EPS guidance to above $4.55 for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:EPS guidance remains at or below $4.55 for fiscal 2026.
of on this Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 10, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) accepted Kevin McLain’s notice of his planned retirement, which is effective May 1, 2026. Mr. McLain has served as the Company’s Senior Vice President, General Merchandise Manager since May 2014. The Company’s succession planning initiat…