Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-15
$73.40-4.70%
Close 2026-09-15 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-15
Research Workspace
Put OLLI beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Grow revenue to about $3 billion in fiscal 2026: FY26 revenue guidance $2.99B vs $3.0B target; Q2 FY26 revenue $741.3M (+9.1% YoY).
View ThesisManagement screens strong on earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 55% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskOllie's Bargain Outlet must grow revenue to about $3 billion in fiscal 2026. Recent earnings showed revenue growth of 9.1% year over year, with a beat in Q2. It trades at 17× P/E versus a peer median of 15×, indicating modest expectations compared to our view. The primary risk is the revenue guidance of $2.99 billion, which is below the $3 billion target. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades. This read is provisional; the thesis is on watch.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-15. OLLI is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 15 analysts currently covering OLLI (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for OLLI in the last 4 months.
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Compare OLLI with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLLI Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Broadline Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put OLLI next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Increase adjusted net income per diluted share to about $4.5 in fiscal 2026
Profit increase amid shopper pullback raises income concerns.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-15. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $73.40
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $73.40.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Expand revenue to approximately $3 billion in fiscal 2026
Earnings increase but falling comparable sales raise concerns.
Threatens: Maintain gross margin near 40.5% in fiscal 2026
Weak comps indicate potential challenges to revenue growth.
Advances: Increase adjusted net income per diluted share to about $4.5 in fiscal 2026
Earnings exceed estimates support net income growth objective.
Advances: Increase EPS to $4.5 in fiscal 2026
EPS growth significantly supports fiscal 2026 target.
Advances: Expand revenue to $3 billion in fiscal 2026
Sales forecast aligns with revenue growth objective.
Advances: Expand revenue to $3 billion in fiscal 2026
Earnings call highlights indicate strong revenue growth potential.
Advances: Expand revenue to $3 billion in fiscal 2026
Earnings exceeding estimates supports revenue growth objective.
