Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-09
$72.38-5.85%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Grow revenue to about $3 billion in fiscal 2026: FY26 revenue guidance $2.99B vs $3.0B target; Q2 YoY +9.1%.
Ollie's grows sales to about $3 billion in 2026. Earnings per share rise to about $4.5. The company keeps gross margin near 40.5%. Store openings and membership growth support these targets.
Revenue guidance was cut recently despite an earnings beat. Analysts have lowered near-term estimates. Margin pressure or slower sales growth could hurt profits.
The price is about 29% below our fair value near $96. The market expects about 30% revenue growth, which is optimistic versus our 8.6% forecast over 3 years.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $4.3 in FY26
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 39% in FY26
Breaks if: revenue falls below $2.65 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with stable management and strong recent financial performance. The current thesis state is mixed, as there are both positive and negative factors influencing the outlook.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, reflecting low execution quality but not indicating extreme fragility. The expectations gap suggests that the current valuation is slightly below what might be expected based on fundamentals.
Management is on track to increase adjusted net income per diluted share and maintain gross margins, which are positive signs for future performance. However, there is an elevated risk due to recent downward revisions in revenue guidance.
The outlook hinges on whether OLLI can reverse course and raise guidance in the next quarter, as well as external factors like inflation trends and the performance of sector leaders. Positive momentum from peers could also support OLLI's growth.
In the next 1 to 3 years, OLLI's performance will depend on its ability to navigate current challenges and capitalize on sector trends. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the view of strong revenue growth potential. The company aims to expand revenue to $3 billion in fiscal 2026. It also targets an increase in EPS to $4.5 in fiscal 2026.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.