Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-10-23

$87.72-5.30%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ollie's Bargain Outlet’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.94 → 4.95 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-01
Revenue	—	675.45M
EPS	—	0.767
Annual ending 2027-01-31
Revenue	—	2.93B
EPS	—	4.611
Annual ending 2028-01-31
Revenue	—	3.26B
EPS	—	4.952

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase EPS to about $4.5 in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Ollie's Bargain Outlet's published investment case. The stated target is $4.45 to $4.55 EPS.	Intact	EPS falls below $4.3 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.42 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $4.45 to $4.55 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 2, 20261.42 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 09211e78-fae5-4221-a8aa-e924415740c2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain gross margin near 40.5% in fiscal 2026	The company keeps gross margin near 40.5%.	Intact	gross margin falls below 39% in FY26	Gross margin: 43.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=40.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 2, 202643.45917 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 09211e78-fae5-4221-a8aa-e924415740c2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Fiscal 2025-Q4 gross margin was 39.9%, improving to 43.5% in 2026-Q2, exceeding guidance near 40.5%. Management has maintained gross margin guidance around 40.5% for fiscal 2026, showing delivery and slight improvement beyond target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow revenue to about $3 billion in fiscal 2026	Ollie's grows sales to about $3 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $2.65 billion in FY26	Revenue: $741.305M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.0B total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 2, 2026741,305,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 09211e78-fae5-4221-a8aa-e924415740c2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Fiscal 2025 revenue was $2.649 billion; management set and updated fiscal 2026 net sales guidance near $3 billion, adjusting slightly downward from $3.0B to $2.928B in 2026-Q3. The trajectory shows management maintaining focus on near $3 billion revenue growth, with recent guidance reflecting modest downward revision but still growth from prior year. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$4.95

$5.06 → $4.95 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$3.26B

$3.30B → $3.26B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.06	$3,300,180,423	9 / 11
2026-07-25	$5.06	$3,300,180,423	9 / 11
2026-07-26	$5.06	$3,300,180,423	9 / 11
2026-07-27	$5.06	$3,300,180,423	9 / 11
2026-07-28	$5.06	$3,300,180,423	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$5.06	$3,300,180,423	9 / 11
2026-07-30	$5.06	$3,300,180,423	9 / 11
2026-07-31	$5.06	$3,300,180,423	9 / 11
2026-08-01	$5.06	$3,300,180,423	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-03	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-04	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-06	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-07	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-10	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-13	$5.05	$3,296,626,760	15 / 15
2026-08-14	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$5.05	$3,296,613,756	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$5.03	$3,292,193,426	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$5.03	$3,292,193,426	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$5.03	$3,292,193,426	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$5.03	$3,291,126,759	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$5.03	$3,291,126,759	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$5.03	$3,291,126,759	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$5.03	$3,291,126,759	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$5.03	$3,291,126,759	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$5.03	$3,291,126,759	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$5.02	$3,287,630,402	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$5.02	$3,287,630,402	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$5.02	$3,287,630,402	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$5.02	$3,284,951,269	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$5.02	$3,284,951,269	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$4.96	$3,264,561,391	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-11	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-12	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-13	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-14	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-15	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-16	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-17	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-18	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-19	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-20	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-21	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-22	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-23	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-24	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-25	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-26	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-27	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-28	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-29	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-09-30	$4.94	$3,260,255,546	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-02	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-03	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-04	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-05	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-06	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-07	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-08	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-09	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-10	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-11	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-12	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-13	$4.94	$3,260,282,213	9 / 11
2026-10-14	$4.95	$3,262,015,546	9 / 11
2026-10-15	$4.95	$3,262,015,546	9 / 11
2026-10-16	$4.95	$3,262,015,546	9 / 11
2026-10-17	$4.95	$3,262,015,546	9 / 11
2026-10-18	$4.95	$3,262,015,546	9 / 11
2026-10-19	$4.95	$3,262,015,546	9 / 11
2026-10-20	$4.95	$3,262,015,546	9 / 11
2026-10-21	$4.95	$3,262,015,546	9 / 11
2026-10-22	$4.95	$3,262,015,546	9 / 11
2026-10-23	$4.95	$3,262,015,546	9 / 11
2026-10-24	$4.95	$3,262,015,546	9 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	2
2026-06-01	14	2
2026-07-01	13	3
2026-08-01	12	3
2026-09-01	12	3
2026-10-01	13	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Gordon Haskett Capital CorporationOct 13 · prior Jun 4

$90.00 → $105.00+16.7%

$0$57.75$115.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase EPS to about $4.5 in fiscal 2026Diluted EPS: $1.42 per share
Maintain gross margin near 40.5% in fiscal 2026Gross margin: 43.46%
Grow revenue to about $3 billion in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Dec 8, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ollie's Bargain Outlet outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

OLLI is a growth-oriented retailer whose thesis depends on continued revenue and earnings execution. The current long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance holding in the top half of its industry, but earnings quality is fragile and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Ollie's Bargain Outlet

The valuation carries a durable premium of about 31% versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are somewhat ahead of the model’s view. The evidence labels this premium justified and the risk of fragility low, but the premium leaves execution important.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s fiscal 2026 priorities remain on track: revenue guidance is near $3 billion, adjusted earnings guidance has risen, and gross margin has exceeded its stated level in a recent quarter. Recent earnings beats and a mild improvement in the overall signal support the setup, though past deep misses and a downward trend in earnings surprises leave some risk.

What Ollie's Bargain Outlet hinges on

A key near-term test is whether guidance reverses course and rises next quarter after the earlier reduction. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on management delivering its revenue, earnings, and margin priorities; strength or weakness among major consumer discretionary companies could affect the sector backdrop.