Reading DDS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DDS free→Reading DDS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DDS free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, while DDS trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether DDS cuts guidance on the next call, which could negatively impact estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $551.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $566 DDS trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $595 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.29x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $4.17 → $4.21 (+1.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$154.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$398.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,426.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong operating income is key for Dillard's financial health.
Confirms:Operating income margin is above 10% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Operating income margin falls below 8% in the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DDS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On June 4, 2026, Dillard’s, Inc., a Texas corporation (the “Company”), completed the transactions contemplated by that certain Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of March 20, 2026 (the “Original Merger Agreement,” and as amended on March 25, 2026, the “Merger Agreement”), by and among the Company, W.D. Company, Inc., an Arkansas corporation (“WDC”), and Alex Dillard (solely in his capacity as the representative of the shareholders of WDC…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Broadline Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DDS Dillard's Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AMZN Amazon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | — | — | elevated |
PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | — | — | elevated |
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of W.D. Company, Inc. to expand market presence.
Focus on sustaining robust operating income levels.
Improve cash flow from operating activities to support financial stability.
Why it matters: The acquisition could boost Dillard's revenue. Monitoring its effect is key for growth.
Confirms:Quarterly revenue grows more than 5% after the acquisition.
Disproves:Quarterly revenue growth is less than 0% after the acquisition.
Why it matters: Enhancing cash flow is vital for Dillard's growth and stability.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities goes up by 15% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities goes down by 5% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact how much consumers spend and how Dillard's does.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 1% for May.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline below -1% for May.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On May 14, 2026, the registrant issued a press release announcing results for the 13 weeks ended May 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report and is incorporated herein by reference.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 20, 2026, Dillard’s, Inc., a Texas corporation (the “Company”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”), by and among the Company, W.D. Company, Inc., an Arkansas corporation (“WDC”), and Alex Dillard, solely in his capacity as the representative of the shareholders of WDC (the “Shareholder Representative”), pursuant to which WDC will merge with and into the Company (the “Merger”), with the Company surviving th…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth under