Dillard's Inc (DDS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-09-09
$623.66-3.32%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Recent financial performance slipped notably this past month, though still top-half.
Dillard's keeps strong operating income near $327 million in 2026-Q1. Cash from operations rose to $364 million, showing good cash flow. The company trades cheap with a PE of 14.56 versus peers at 17.27. Recent acquisition adds growth potential.
Customer loyalty is weak, risking future sales and profits. Analysts expect revenue to shrink about 2% next year. The sector faces headwinds, and recent selling pressure shows investor concern.
The price is about 15% below our fair value near $615. The market expects about 2% revenue decline, which aligns with analyst consensus. Our view is cautious given customer loyalty risks but sees value in cash flow and margin strength.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $300 million next quarter
Increase cash flow from operations to support financial stability and capital needs.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on strategic growth and operational efficiency. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has shown some weakness despite a recent earnings beat.
The market appears to have a neutral view on DDS, with a valuation that suggests expectations are aligned with its recent performance. There is a slight premium compared to peers, indicating that some growth potential is already factored in.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, as management has shown commitment to improving operating income and cash flow. However, recent trends indicate a potential for earnings surprises to trend down, which could impact future performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on key priorities, such as enhancing cash flow and maintaining margins. Additionally, external factors like inflation and sector performance from peers will significantly influence DDS's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the outlook. Tariff refunds boosted operating income significantly. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $250 million next quarter
Focus on sustaining and improving operating income through sales growth and margin management.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income increased from $163.8M in 2025-Q1 to $250.6M in 2026-Q1, and retail gross margin improved from 38.1% in 2025-Q2 to 40.9% in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering on maintaining strong operating income with improving margins and profitability.
“Retail gross margin of 40.9% boosted by tariff rebates helped grow cash flow and bottom line.”
“Reported net income of $97.7 million, EPS $6.25, retail gross margin 40.9%.”
“Net income of $250.6 million, EPS $16.04, retail gross margin 45.8%.”
Breaks if: Revenue declines more than 5% year over year
Overall, DDS is in a watch state with mixed signals from recent performance and market conditions. Not investment advice.