Etsy (ETSY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-29
$91.59-0.82%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put ETSY beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 5% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 16% growth a year, above the roughly 1% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskETSY depends on AI-enhanced search and app engagement sustaining marketplace growth as revenue growth accelerates. Revenue growth rose from 7.6% to 10.9% year over year, with Q3 earnings beating estimates. ETSY trades at 25× P/E versus the 15× peer median. The market prices in more growth than our forecast. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 23%. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); our read remains intact, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. ETSY is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 32 analysts currently covering ETSY (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 19 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ETSY in the last 4 months.
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Compare ETSY with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETSY Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Broadline Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put ETSY next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Strengthen buyer and seller loyalty and human connection
Reported AI-listing crackdown and buyer returns support marketplace trust and buyer loyalty.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $91.59
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $91.59.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Drive sustainable long-term growth for Etsy marketplace
Reported marketplace growth inflection supports sustainable growth, though it is not an official company announcement.
Drive sustainable long-term growth for Etsy marketplace
Q4 GMS outlook informs growth expectations; CFO transition adds uncertainty but no stated operational disruption.
Advances: Drive sustainable long-term growth for Etsy marketplace
Earnings and revenue beating estimates support marketplace growth, though the headline alone gives limited detail.
Advances: Drive sustainable long-term growth for Etsy marketplace
AI initiatives align with long-term growth strategy.
Advances: Drive sustainable long-term growth for Etsy marketplace
AI search and app engagement boost marketplace growth.
Advances: Drive sustainable long-term growth for Etsy marketplace
AI search and app engagement boost marketplace growth.
Advances: Drive sustainable long-term growth for Etsy marketplace
AI search and app engagement boost marketplace growth.
