Revolve Group, Inc. (RVLV)

Q: What's priced into Revolve Group, Inc. (RVLV) stock?

RVLV is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence labels that premium expensive and not fully justified. The expectations gap is meaningful, so the valuation appears to assume continued business strength, even though the snapshot does not detail the market’s exact growth assumptions.

Q: What does the Revolve Group, Inc. (RVLV) outlook hinge on?

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued customer growth, profitable sales expansion, and management maintaining its guidance. Consumer Discretionary sector momentum is another swing factor: strong results from AMZN, BABA, and PDD could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$22.26-1.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Revolve Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.11 → 1.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Gross margin	53.5%–54%	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	355.98M
EPS	—	0.219
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.39B
EPS	—	0.884
Gross margin	53.5%–54%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.52B
EPS	—	1.108

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain gross margin near 54.2% in FY 2026	Revolve Group keeps its gross margin near 54% as guided for 2026.	Improving	gross margin falls below 53.7% in FY26	Gross margin: 56.61% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=53.7% and <=54.2% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202656.609721 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 60ba3ecc-774b-4d14-bae8-554a6c4c153b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin improved from 52.7% in 2026-Q1 to 56.6% in 2026-Q2, aided by tariff refunds. Management maintains FY 2026 guidance at 53.5% to 54.0%. The trajectory shows margin expansion delivering above guidance despite cost pressures. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Cash from operating activities improves to positive $49.4M in Q1 2026	Operating cash flow improves from negative to positive, reaching about $49 million in early 2026.	Intact	cash from operating activities falls below $0 in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating cash flow rose from $12.6M in 2025-Q4 to $49.4M in 2026-Q1. Free cash flow increased from $9.6M in 2025-Q2 to $44.9M in 2026-Q1. Management emphasizes strong cash generation to fund growth and capital allocation, showing delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth near 10% in next 12 months	Sales growth is expected near 10% next year, supporting steady profit growth.	Improving	revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.11

$1.07 → $1.11 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.52B

$1.46B → $1.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.07	$1,460,368,280	8 / 14
2026-07-25	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-07-26	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-07-27	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-07-28	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-07-29	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-07-30	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-07-31	$1.07	$1,465,452,404	9 / 11
2026-08-01	$1.07	$1,465,452,404	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-08-03	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-08-04	$1.07	$1,465,453,119	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$1.07	$1,460,676,330	8 / 14
2026-08-06	$1.07	$1,460,676,330	8 / 14
2026-08-08	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$1.14	$1,518,313,160	8 / 14
2026-08-10	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-13	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-14	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-21	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-23	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-24	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-25	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-26	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-27	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-28	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-29	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-30	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	10 / 12
2026-09-04	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	10 / 12
2026-09-05	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-06	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-07	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-08	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-09	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-10	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-11	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-12	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-13	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-14	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-15	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-16	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-17	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-18	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-19	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-20	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-21	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-22	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-23	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-24	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-25	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-26	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-27	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-28	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-29	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-30	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-01	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-02	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-03	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-04	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-05	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-06	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-07	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-08	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-09	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-16	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-17	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-18	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12
2026-10-19	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12
2026-10-20	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12
2026-10-21	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12
2026-10-22	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12
2026-10-23	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12
2026-10-24	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	6	1
2026-06-01	9	5	1
2026-07-01	9	5	1
2026-08-01	9	5	1
2026-09-01	9	5	1
2026-10-01	9	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain gross margin near 54.2% in FY 2026Gross margin: 56.61%
Cash from operating activities improves to positive $49.4M in Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth near 10% in next 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Revolve Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-focused consumer business with a durable premium valuation, rather than a turnaround or deep-value case. The multi-year view is intact, with recent signals improving from mixed to mildly favorable, though risk remains elevated.

What's priced into Revolve Group, Inc.

RVLV is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence labels that premium expensive and not fully justified. The expectations gap is meaningful, so the valuation appears to assume continued business strength, even though the snapshot does not detail the market’s exact growth assumptions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show sales and active customers growing, while gross margin improved and management kept its full-year margin guidance unchanged. G&A spending is rising alongside investment, and a guidance cut remains a notable risk; recent performance is otherwise neutral, with a low near-term miss-risk signal.

What Revolve Group, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued customer growth, profitable sales expansion, and management maintaining its guidance. Consumer Discretionary sector momentum is another swing factor: strong results from AMZN, BABA, and PDD could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.

Bottom line

For the 1-to-3-year view, RVLV has evidence of ongoing growth and execution, but its expensive valuation makes sustained delivery important. The thesis is intact, with medium confidence and elevated risk. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Gross margin	53.5%–54%	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	355.98M
EPS	—	0.219
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.39B
EPS	—	0.884
Gross margin	53.5%–54%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.52B
EPS	—	1.108

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.11

$1.07 → $1.11 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.52B

$1.46B → $1.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.07	$1,460,368,280	8 / 14
2026-07-25	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-07-26	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-07-27	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-07-28	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-07-29	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-07-30	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-07-31	$1.07	$1,465,452,404	9 / 11
2026-08-01	$1.07	$1,465,452,404	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-08-03	$1.07	$1,460,679,180	8 / 14
2026-08-04	$1.07	$1,465,453,119	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$1.07	$1,460,676,330	8 / 14
2026-08-06	$1.07	$1,460,676,330	8 / 14
2026-08-08	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$1.14	$1,518,313,160	8 / 14
2026-08-10	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-13	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-14	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$1.11	$1,514,292,286	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-21	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-23	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-24	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-25	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-26	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-27	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-28	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-29	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-30	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$1.11	$1,518,312,286	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	10 / 12
2026-09-04	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	10 / 12
2026-09-05	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-06	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-07	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-08	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-09	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-10	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-11	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-12	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-13	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-14	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-15	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-16	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-17	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-18	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-19	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-20	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-21	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-22	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-23	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-24	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-25	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-26	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-27	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-28	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-29	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-09-30	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-01	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-02	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-03	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-04	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-05	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-06	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-07	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-08	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-09	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-16	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-17	$1.11	$1,518,315,205	9 / 12
2026-10-18	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12
2026-10-19	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12
2026-10-20	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12
2026-10-21	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12
2026-10-22	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12
2026-10-23	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12
2026-10-24	$1.11	$1,517,980,438	9 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings