Kohl's Corp. (KSS)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-10-23

$24.58-0.81%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kohl's Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.60 → 1.60 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	—	3.39B
EPS	—	-0.002
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	14.75B
EPS	—	2.14
Capital expenditure	$350M–$400M	—
Operating margin	3.5%–4%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	14.77B
EPS	—	1.603

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage capital expenditures within $350M-$400M	A primary condition in Kohl's Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $350M-$400M.	Intact	Capital expenditures exceed $400M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $62M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $350M-$400M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 3, 202662,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance remains steady at $350M to $400M annually. The company has maintained this disciplined capex range consistently, indicating delivery on this operational capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share	The company maintains a quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share.	Intact	Dividend cut or suspension	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board consistently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share in Q1, Q2, and Q3 2026. This reflects steady delivery on the dividend commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve EPS between $1.0 and $1.6	The company maintains a quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.0 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.28 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $1.0 and $1.6. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 3, 20261.28 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 881a20ee-15d8-4e97-8879-cdc685dd62ad. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating margin near 3.1%	A primary condition in Kohl's Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is 2.8% to 3.4%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 2.8% in FY26	Operating margin: 7.43% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 2.8% to 3.4%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 3, 20267.42532 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 881a20ee-15d8-4e97-8879-cdc685dd62ad. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$1.60

$1.49 → $1.60 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$14.77B

$14.80B → $14.77B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-07-29	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-07-30	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-07-31	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-01	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-03	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-04	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-06	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-07	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$1.49	$15,017,664,890	14 / 10
2026-08-13	$1.49	$15,017,664,890	14 / 10
2026-08-14	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$1.49	$14,802,490,515	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$1.50	$14,814,568,079	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$1.50	$14,814,568,079	8 / 8
2026-08-22	$1.50	$14,814,568,079	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$1.50	$14,814,568,079	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$1.50	$14,814,568,079	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$1.50	$14,814,568,079	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$1.50	$14,814,568,079	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$1.50	$14,814,568,079	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$1.50	$14,814,568,079	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$1.60	$14,794,781,810	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$1.60	$14,788,941,107	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$1.58	$14,753,735,983	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$1.58	$14,753,735,983	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$1.60	$14,768,110,983	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$1.60	$14,768,110,983	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	8	4
2026-06-01	2	8	4
2026-07-01	2	7	5
2026-08-01	2	7	5
2026-09-01	2	7	5
2026-10-01	3	7	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Gordon Haskett Capital CorporationOct 22

$27.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$14.85$29.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage capital expenditures within $350M-$400MCapital expenditures: $62M
Maintain quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per shareRequired source inputs unavailable
Achieve EPS between $1.0 and $1.6Diluted EPS: $1.28 per share
Maintain operating margin near 3.1%Operating margin: 7.43%

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kohl's Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KSS is a challenged retailer with a value-oriented setup, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is currently intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and management execution remains volatile.

What's priced into Kohl's Corp.

The valuation evidence describes KSS as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low. Pricing is tagged as justified, with no fragility signals, so the evidence does not indicate a clear mismatch between expectations and the business setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent performance is mixed: first-quarter revenue and comparable sales were lower than a year earlier, despite an August earnings beat. Management continues to prioritize operational improvement, while capex guidance and the quarterly dividend have remained steady. Earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down, although the stated near-term miss risk is low.

What Kohl's Corp. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether comparable sales and operations improve; a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative. Over the multi-year view, steady execution on the operating reset matters, while results and guidance from sector peers could either sustain or weaken the sector backdrop.