ThredUp, Inc. (TDUP)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
$2.70+1.12%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue reaches $351M-$356M in 2026: FY26 rev guidance $346.4M vs $351.2M target.
ThredUp is growing revenue toward $353 million in 2026. Its gross margin is strong near 79%. The company aims for a 6% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026. Recent revenue rose from $67M to $82M in early 2026. The CEO targets growth by competing with eBay.
ThredUp is still loss-making with negative EPS. The market expects 14% revenue growth but the company’s growth is slowing. Talent challenges may hurt operations. Profit margins and cash flow remain weak.
The market prices in about 14% revenue growth and expects losses to continue. Our fair value is $2.31, reflecting cautious optimism. The market may be stretched on growth given the company’s current losses.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA margin remains below 4% in FY26
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 78.5% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation. The current thesis state indicates that while there are some positive management priorities, the overall financial performance has been weak and the risk is high.
The market appears to be pricing in a stretched valuation compared to peers, with a durable premium. There is an expectations gap of 0.18, suggesting that the market may be anticipating some improvement in performance.
Management is focused on increasing revenue and improving margins, with some progress noted in recent quarters. However, the overall financial performance remains weak, and there is a low probability of missing guidance, although the risk is elevated due to the company's smaller size.
The future performance of TDUP hinges on several factors, including the potential for guidance cuts and inflation trends. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders like AMZN, BABA, and PDD could influence TDUP's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company raised its revenue outlook to $344.4M-$348.4M. However, it missed earnings expectations and faces challenges in achieving its gross margin target.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain gross margin in the range of approximately 78.7% to 79.1% for full year 2026, supporting profitability goals.
Gross margin target stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Actual gross margin was 79.9% in 2026-Q2, slightly above the prior year quarter's 79.5%. Full year 2026 guidance targets 78.7% to 79.1%. The margin trajectory is stable and consistent with management's stated goals.
“Gross margin was 79.9% in Q2 2026, compared to 79.5% last year.”
“Gross margin was 79.2% in Q1 2026, compared to 79.1% last year.”
“For fiscal year 2026, ThredUp expects gross margin in the range of 78.0% to 79.0%.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $351M in FY26
ThredUp aims to achieve revenue between $351.2 million and $356.2 million for the full fiscal year 2026.
In the 1 to 3 year view, TDUP's success will depend on its ability to execute on management's priorities in a challenging environment. Not investment advice.