Reading SWIM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SWIM free→Reading SWIM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SWIM free→NASDAQIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, SWIM is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If SWIM cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.45 SWIM trades at 46× p/e — 2.6× the 18× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $4.61 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 18% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 7.32x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.16 → $0.15 (-1.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$227.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$474.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,230.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects overall economic health. Strong GDP could indicate better demand for Latham Group's products.
Confirms:GDP growth reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SWIM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Latham Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal first quarter ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished with this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99 referenced under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SWIM Latham Group, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 15 of 100 | full | elevated |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for a 9% year-over-year sales growth in 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $99.95M in 2025-Q4 to $117.32M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 9% sales growth target for 2026. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated priority.
“We are pleased to reaffirm our guidance, which represents year-over-year sales growth of 9.0%.”
“Guidance for Latham’s full year 2026 represents year-on-year sales growth of 9.0% at the midpoint.”
Management targets a 12.7% growth in adjusted EBITDA for the year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. While management has reiterated the 12.7% adjusted EBITDA growth target, the financials do not provide specific EBITDA figures for 2026-Q1 to assess progress. The trajectory remains unclear without further data.
“Adjusted EBITDA growth of 12.7% at the midpoint reflects the significant operating leverage.”
Management reaffirms its capital expenditure guidance range of $42-$48 million for 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently reaffirmed the CAPEX guidance range of $42-$48M for 2026. However, the financials do not provide specific CAPEX figures for 2026-Q1 to assess adherence to this guidance. The trajectory remains consistent with stated guidance.
“Capital Expenditures $42 million $48 million.”
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact demand for Latham Group's products. Strong sales may boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline by more than 1% month over month.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Second Amendment to Latham Group, Inc. 2021 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan On April 30, 2026, at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) of the Company, the stockholders approved the second amendment (the “Second Amendment”) to the Latham Group, Inc. 2021 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan, as amended on May 2, 2023 (the “2021 Omni…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026, Latham Group Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, and furnished the press release on a Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Original Form 8-K”). This Current Report on Form 8-K/A amends the Original Form 8-K solely to furnish a corrected version of the press release that reclassifies a $12 million deposit on property purchases from prepaid expens…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026, Latham Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished with this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Latham Group, Inc. (the “Company”) and its wholly owned subsidiary, Latham Pool Products, Inc. (“Latham Pool”), are implementing a planned transition process for the office of President and Chief Executive Officer. On December 8, 2025, the Company announced that Scott Rajeski, Latham Pool’s President and Chief Executive Officer, will retire from th…
“Adjusted EBITDA growth of 12.7% at the midpoint reflects the significant operating leverage.”
“Capital Expenditures $42 million $48 million.”
“Capital Expenditures $42 million $48 million.”