Reading AAON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AAON free→Reading AAON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AAON free→NASDAQIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 253% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple but looks cheaper over three years due to expected earnings growth. If AAON cuts guidance after recently raising it, that could hurt credibility.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $131.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $131, AAON's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 7× p/s (4.2× the 2× p/s peer median, and 1.0× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~271% near-term growth vs our ~29% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $35 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 271% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 29%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.46 → $0.49 (+5.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$223.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$514.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,075.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Management rose by 11.8 points (from 43.8 to 55.6).
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Q2 results will show if AAON maintains its strong sales growth and margin recovery.
Confirms one read:Q2 net sales growth above 40% year over year, confirming strong demand.
Confirms the other:Q2 net sales grew less than 40% from last year. This shows demand is weakening.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AAON yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure On June 2, 2026, the Company participated in William Blair Growth Stock Conference located at the Loews Chicago Hotel, 455 N Park Dr, Chicago, IL 60611. The event included a presentation given by Matt Tobolski, CEO & President and Andy Cheung, CFO and Treasurer. A copy of the Company's presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and has also been posted on our website. All statements at the conference (including Exhibit 99.1), other th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AAON AAON | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing production throughput and converting existing backlog into sales.
Enhance production capacity and utilization to support growth and margin improvement.
Continue regular quarterly cash dividend payments to shareholders.
The company has announced a $100 million share buyback program to be executed depending on market conditions.
AAON aims to improve operating income, as evidenced by recent financial performance.
Why it matters: News about the buyback program shows that management trusts the company's value.
Confirms:They announced share buybacks under the $100 million buyback program.
Disproves:No updates or delays in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Gross margin changes will reflect how well AAON is managing costs amid rising production.
Confirms one read:Gross margin improves to 27% or higher in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Gross margin declines below 25% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows strong demand. It also shows the ability to handle future orders.
Confirms:Total backlog increases above $2.1 billion in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Total backlog decreases or remains below $2.1 billion in Q2 2026.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. All statements in the teleconference, other than historical financial information, may be deemed to be "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “plans”, “believes”, “seeks”, “estimates”, “should”, “will”, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify…
Other Events. The Company announced that the Board of Directors has declared its next regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share or $0.40 annually. The next cash dividend will be payable on June 26, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 5, 2026. A copy of the Company's press release announcing the quarterly cash dividend is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events The Company today announced that the Board of Directors has authorized the Company to make up to $100.0 million in purchases of shares of the Company’s common stock from time to time in the open market depending on market conditions. The Board must authorize the timing and amount of these purchases and all repurchases will be made in accordance with the rules and regulations of the SEC allowing the Company to repurchase shares from the open market. Repurchased shares will be rest…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (c) Appointment of certain Officers On April 2, 2026, AAON, Inc. (the "Company") announced a transition in the Chief Financial Officer ("CFO") role. Andy Cheung will join AAON on April 20, 2026, as its Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Cheung, age 51, most recently served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Office…