AAON (AAON)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-15
$74.32-1.62%
Close 2026-09-15 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-15
Research Workspace
Put AAON beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Building Products is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Maintain gross margin near 27-28% in FY26: FY26 gross margin guidance 25.5% vs 27% target.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 54% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 44%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 118% growth a year, above the roughly 28% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 50% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAAON's growth relies on maintaining gross margins near 27-28% in FY26. Recent guidance of 25.5% indicates a potential shortfall, which could undermine investor confidence. Revenue grew 101% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations. AAON trades at 39× P/E versus a peer median of 18×, suggesting the market expects more growth than forecasted. The primary risk is the potential for a credibility hit if guidance is cut after a recent raise. Peer multiples imply a price about 120% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis). The thesis has broken due to the primary pillar being compromised.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-15. AAON is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 5 analysts currently covering AAON (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare AAON with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Free account required to save the handoff. No credit card.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Building Products — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put AAON next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Increase share buyback program
Guidance raised but shares fell, indicating market skepticism.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-15. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Drive throughput and convert backlog
Strong sales growth forecast supports backlog conversion.
Advances: Drive throughput and convert backlog
Strong Q2 results indicate effective backlog conversion.
Advances: Drive throughput and convert backlog
Strengthening backlog from data center buildout aligns with growth.
Advances: Drive throughput and convert backlog
Backlog growth supports throughput and growth objectives.
Advances: Drive throughput and convert backlog
Increased demand aligns with growth objectives.
Advances: Drive throughput and convert backlog
Increased backlog supports growth and throughput objectives.
Positive outlook on recovery plans supports valuation.