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Johnson Controls (JCI)
NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$146.06+0.76%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is volatile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, but risk is low. Peer multiples imply a price about 81% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This is because it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If JCI cuts guidance after recently raising it, that could hurt credibility.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Building Products & Equipment
- Market cap
- $88.44B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-10
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $146.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$80.86consensus
Range $57.46 – $93.82
vs price: +81% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$156.11consensus
Range $101.41 – $200.43
vs price: -6% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $146 JCI trades at 33× p/e — 1.8× the 18× p/e peer median, and above its own 26× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $81 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $140–$180. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
33.3x
peer 18.0x · own history 25.8x
Premium
1.8x peer
1.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
81%
our forecast -3%
Our fair value
$80.86
range $56.56 – $93.82
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 81% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
89th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
14th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish18 analysts, 52% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.29 → $1.30 (+0.1% / 30d). 13 raised, 3 cut, 18 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 52% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$264.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,272.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 22d
Watch for Q3 organic sales growth meeting or exceeding 6%
Why it matters: This growth target is key for Johnson Controls' performance in fiscal 2026. Meeting it would show strong demand and execution.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q3 organic sales growth reported at or above 6%.
Disproves:Q3 organic sales growth was below 6%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for JCI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TT, CARR, and LII keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting JCI and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If JCI beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +6% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If JCI reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-07), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like TT, CARR, and LII start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping JCI and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits JCI and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0314d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Elections of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of New Director On June 3, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Johnson Controls International plc (the "Company") increased the size of the Board to 12 directors in accordance with its Memorandum and Articles of Association and appointed Irene Esteves to serve as a member of the Company’s Board with a term expiring at the con…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.