A. O. Smith (AOS)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-29
$63.07-0.66%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put AOS beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Building Products is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — EPS between $3.60 and $3.90 in FY26: Diluted EPS: $0.93 per share.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 1% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 13%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskAOS’s North America growth and execution must offset flat revenue and challenging China conditions. Q3 revenue was flat year over year, while non-GAAP EPS beat by 3.3%. AOS trades at 17× P/E versus the 19× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite that peer discount. The FY26 EPS pillar remains under pressure against its $3.60 to $3.90 range. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 24%. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. AOS is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 15 analysts currently covering AOS (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOS Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Building Products — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put AOS next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Complete the strategic transaction for the China business
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Expected sales growth and a stated CPE closing timeline advance growth and China-transaction objectives.
Advances: Drive North America growth and operational execution
An official quarterly earnings call provides material updates on North America growth and operational execution.
Threatens: Manage challenging conditions in China market
Selling control of China operations materially changes the plan for managing a challenging market.
Threatens: Manage challenging conditions in China market
China market weakness impacts management's growth objectives.
Advances: Increase share repurchase target to $300 million in 2026
Higher buybacks support capital allocation objectives.
Advances: Lower full-year 2026 EPS outlook
Narrowing EPS outlook aligns with management's guidance objective.
Advances: Increase consolidated sales by 2% to 5%
Sales beat supports growth objective and overall thesis.
Threatens: Manage challenging conditions in China
Highlights ongoing challenges in China affecting performance.