Trex (TREX)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$51.14+0.57%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put TREX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Building Products is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 7% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 21%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 23% growth a year, above the roughly 8% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 38% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskTREX’s demand recovery must sustain revenue growth toward its $2 billion 2030 objective. Recent financial performance is strong, though Q2 FY2026 revenue grew 8% year over year. Non-GAAP earnings missed by 3.1%. TREX trades at 29× P/E versus a 19× peer median, near its 26× history. The market prices more growth than our forecast, leaving that peer premium dependent on execution. Weak cash backing for reported profits raises the risk of premium compression. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 31%. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades; our read remains intact. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. TREX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 21 analysts currently covering TREX (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for TREX in the last 4 months.
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Compare TREX with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Building Products — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put TREX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Drive revenue growth to $2 billion by 2030
Upgrade indicates positive demand outlook supporting revenue growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $51.14
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $51.14.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Drive revenue growth to $2 billion by 2030
Positive outlook aligns with revenue growth target.
Advances: Invest in innovation and product expansion
Innovation in wood conversion aligns with product expansion goals.
Advances: Drive revenue growth to $2 billion by 2030
Little Rock expansion supports revenue growth objective.
Advances: Invest in innovation and product expansion
Awards enhance Trex's innovation reputation and product expansion efforts.
Threatens: Drive revenue growth
Revenue growth is positive but shares fell, indicating concerns.
Threatens: Optimize distribution channels for growth
Distribution network overhaul may hinder revenue growth.
Advances: Drive revenue growth
Analyst target increases support revenue growth expectations.