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Trex (TREX)
NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$46.37+1.62%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include any guidance changes from TREX and the performance of sector bellwethers like TT, JCI, and CARR. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Building Products & Equipment
- Market cap
- $4.74B
- Employees
- 1,839
- IPO date
- 1998-09-11
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $46.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$34.82consensus
Range $33.67 – $40.32
vs price: +33% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$33.16consensus
Range $28.09 – $42.31
vs price: +40% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $46 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 28× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $35 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $36–$59. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
24.8x
peer 18.0x · own history 27.9x
Premium
1.4x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
33%
our forecast 13%
Our fair value
$34.82
range $33.67 – $40.32
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 33% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
50th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.06x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
71st pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish20 analysts, 50% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.62. 5 raised, 9 cut, 20 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$168.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$346.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,601.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for the CEO transition to Adam Zambanini on April 28, 2026
Why it matters: A smooth transition can keep operations stable. It can also help investor confidence in Trex's future.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Stakeholders gave good feedback about the leadership change.
Confirms the other:There are concerns or disruptions reported during the CEO transition.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-124d agoYahoo! Finance
Competition concerns could hinder revenue growth objectives.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TT, JCI, and CARR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting TREX and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If TREX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-13), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If TREX cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-13), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like TT, JCI, and CARR start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping TREX and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits TREX and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-131mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Trex Company, Inc. (Company) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026, as previously furnished. Also, on May 7, 2026, the Company held a conference call to discuss financial and operating results. A transcript of the conference call is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.