Reading AWI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AWI free→Reading AWI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AWI free→NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If AWI cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $157.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $158 AWI trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median. Our $145 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.26 → $2.26 (-0.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 8 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$121.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$224.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,506.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Steady sales growth is key for long-term financial health and backs management's plans.
Confirms:Net sales growth exceeds 8% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Net sales growth falls below 5% year over year in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue
Growth initiatives positively impacting revenue growth.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Sect…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | moderate |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving strong growth in net sales for the fiscal year 2026.
Continue to provide a stable dividend payout to shareholders.
Aim to achieve higher adjusted diluted EPS for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Sales growth in this segment is key to overall revenue. It shows market demand and execution.
Confirms:Architectural Specialties had net sales growth over 10% from last year in Q2.
Disproves:Architectural Specialties had net sales growth under 5% from last year in Q2.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show financial health and care for shareholders. Changes can affect investor trust.
Confirms one read:The company maintains or increases the dividend payout in Q2.
Confirms the other:The company cuts the dividend payout in Q2.
Advances: Increase revenue
Growth initiatives positively impacting revenue growth.
Advances: Increase revenue
Earnings beat indicates strong revenue and EPS growth.
Other Events On April 24, 2026, Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.339 per share of outstanding common stock payable on May 26, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 11, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Sect…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 27, 2026, the Company and Austin K. So, the Company’s Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Head of Government Relations & Chief Sustainability Officer, Secretary, finalized their mutual agreement regarding his separation, effective April 1, 2026. This separation aligns with a broader board and management transition, which will also be…
Other Events On February 19, 2026, Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing it has completed the acquisition of Eventscape, Inc. (“Eventscape”) headquartered in Toronto, Ontario, Canada with additional operations in New York City, New York. Eventscape is a leader in the design, fabrication and installation of custom ceilings, walls, facades and other architectural features made of a broad range of materials. AWI funded the transaction with existing ca…