Reading WTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WTS free→Reading WTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WTS free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 64% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. If WTS cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative, as the Street tends to walk down estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $333.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $333 the market pays 30× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 26× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $203 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $317–$379. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 65% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.31 → $3.32 (+0.1% / 30d). 4 raised, 6 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$200.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,545.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A slowdown in organic sales growth could signal weakening demand in the market.
Confirms:Q2 organic sales growth was below 2%.
Disproves:Q2 organic sales growth was above 6%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WTS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$317.00 – $379.00 (median $344.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WTS Watts Water Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving sales growth between 8% and 12% for 2026.
Continue efforts to improve operating income through efficiency and margin improvements.
Focus on improving gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: This would show that Watts is gaining momentum in a slowing sector. Strong growth would support management's goal of increasing revenue.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving free cash flow would support ongoing investments and dividends.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported above $10 million in Q2.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $5 million in Q2.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows renewed growth, it could benefit Watts. This is important as the sector is currently maturing.
Confirms one read:Sector growth reported above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in gross profit margin shows better cost control and pricing strategies. This aligns with management's focus on improving margins.
Confirms:Gross profit margin reported above 35% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit margin reported below 30% in Q2.
Why it matters: This shows that costs are managed well. It helps the company make more money.
Confirms:Operating income grew more than 20% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income grew less than 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin may mean higher costs or problems.
Confirms:Operating margin was below 18.8% for Q2.
Disproves:Operating margin was above 19.4% for Q2.
of this Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.