Reading SSD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SSD free→Reading SSD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SSD free→NYSEIndustrialsLumber & Wood ProductionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. If SSD cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $195.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $194 the market pays 23× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $162 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $205–$220. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 19% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.69 → $2.69 (+0.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$118.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$259.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,037.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Lower revenue growth would signal a slowdown in demand, affecting future earnings.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth below 5% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth above 5% year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SSD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$205.00 – $220.00 (median $214.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-04-29
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SSD Simpson Manufacturing | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Focus on increasing cash flow from operations to support growth and investment.
Why it matters: Housing starts data can impact demand for Simpson's products and overall revenue.
Confirms one read:Housing starts data shows an increase month-over-month.
Confirms the other:Housing starts data shows a decrease month-over-month.
Why it matters: New repurchases show that the company believes in its financial health and stock value.
Confirms:They announced more share repurchases beyond the $100 million that is left.
Disproves:No new share repurchase announcements in Q2.
Why it matters: If the sector grows faster again, it could help Simpson and boost its revenue.
Confirms one read:Sector growth reported above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Getting over $40M in cash from operations helps Simpson's plans for growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported above $40M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported below $30M in Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin may mean costs are going up or there are problems.
Confirms:Operating margin below 19.5% for Q2.
Disproves:Operating margin above 19.5% for Q2.
Why it matters: A 10% rise in operating income shows good cost management. It also helps growth efforts.
Confirms:Operating income increases by more than 10% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income increases by less than 5% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: More cash flow helps with growth plans and increases operating income.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases by more than 10% year over year.
Disproves:Cash from operations growth is flat or declines year over year.
Why it matters: The sector is slowing down. If revenue growth picks up, it signals strength for Simpson Manufacturing.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the industrials sector rises back toward 8% or higher.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 6% for another quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 9, 2026 , Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by this reference. This information is furnished pursuant to