Reading MAS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MAS free→Reading MAS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MAS free→NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If MAS cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $74.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $74 MAS trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median. Our $75 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $72–$97. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.32x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.32 → $1.31 (-0.6% / 30d). 13 raised, 6 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$138.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$269.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,438.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is performing. It can change investor outlook.
Confirms one read:Earnings were more than 5% higher than what analysts expected.
Confirms the other:Earnings were more than 5% lower than what analysts expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MAS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99 is a copy of the press release dated April 22, 2026 reporting Masco Corporation’s financial results for the first quarter 2026 and certain other information and supplemental information prepared for use in connection with the financial results for the first quarter 2026. On April 22, 2026, Masco Corporation will hold an investor conference call and webcast to discuss financial results fo…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$72.00 – $97.00 (median $79.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-04-23
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MAS Masco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the EPS guidance in the range of $4.10 to $4.30 for 2026.
Oversee the transition of key leadership roles, including the Group President of Plumbing and Wellness.
Why it matters: This report can change market feelings and Masco's performance.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is over 2% and corporate profits are up. This shows economic strength.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is under 1% and corporate profits are down. This shows economic weakness.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows faith in future results. This is true even with market issues.
Confirms:Management confirms EPS guidance remains in the range of $4.10 to $4.30 per share.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance below $4.10 per share.
Why it matters: The earnings beat could boost investor confidence and stock performance.
Confirms:Stock price goes up a lot after the earnings beat announcement.
Disproves:Stock price goes down even after the earnings beat. This shows bigger issues.
Why it matters: Sustained sales growth is crucial for long-term health, especially after a strong Q1.
Confirms:Q2 2026 net sales exceed $1,918 million reported in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 2026 net sales fall below $1,918 million.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect the company’s path and results. Stability is important for investors.
Confirms:Management has a clear plan for the leadership change. They explain how it will affect operations.
Disproves:There are more delays or confusion about the leadership change.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 21, 2026, Masco Corporation (the “Company”) announced that Jai Shah, Masco’s Group President, Plumbing and Wellness, will conclude service with the Company on July 3, 2026. The Company entered into an agreement with Mr. Shah dated April 16, 2026 in connection with his conclusion of service, which provides for the following: Pursuant and su…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 20, 2026, Masco Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “New Credit Agreement”) dated as of March 20, 2026 among Masco Corporation and Masco Europe S.à r.l., as borrowers, the lenders party thereto, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and J.P. Morgan SE, collectively as administrative agent, pursuant to which the lenders party thereto have provided the Company with revolving credit commitments thereunder in an aggregate a…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. The information provided under
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. As discussed under