Masco (MAS)

NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$72.87+0.40%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Masco’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.65 → 4.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain EPS guidance at or above $4.10 for 2026	Masco keeps its EPS guidance steady near $4.10 for 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $4.10 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successfully manage leadership changes without disrupting operations	Leadership changes support management's transition goals.	Intact	significant operational disruption or negative leadership news impacting results	Qualitative: No operational disruption Q2 2026 earnings beat with strong volume growth; new CTO appointment supports operational excellence; no negative leadership news impacting results. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least 3% revenue growth annually	A primary condition in Masco's published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% over next 4 quarters	Revenue growth: -2.88% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026-2.876646 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cfe64d27-1bcc-404a-9f6b-dd9d367764f6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain valuation discount to peer median PE	A supporting condition in Masco's published investment case. The stated target is PE below 24.	Intact	PE rises above peer median of 24 without earnings growth justification	P/E (TTM): 16.24x As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 202616.2371 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: MAS:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.61

$4.71 → $4.61 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.85B

$8.01B → $7.85B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.71	$8,012,605,960	21 / 19
2026-07-25	$4.71	$8,012,605,960	21 / 19
2026-07-26	$4.71	$8,012,605,960	21 / 19
2026-07-27	$4.71	$8,012,605,960	21 / 19
2026-07-28	$4.71	$8,019,845,559	13 / 14
2026-07-29	$4.71	$8,012,605,960	21 / 19
2026-07-30	$4.72	$8,012,237,540	21 / 19
2026-07-31	$4.67	$7,919,941,080	13 / 14
2026-08-01	$4.67	$7,919,941,080	13 / 14
2026-08-02	$4.67	$7,910,029,710	21 / 19
2026-08-03	$4.67	$7,910,029,710	21 / 19
2026-08-04	$4.65	$7,888,962,836	13 / 14
2026-08-05	$4.66	$7,879,596,640	21 / 19
2026-08-06	$4.66	$7,879,596,640	21 / 19
2026-08-07	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-08	$4.67	$7,879,596,640	21 / 19
2026-08-09	$4.67	$7,879,596,640	21 / 19
2026-08-10	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-12	$4.67	$7,879,596,640	21 / 19
2026-08-13	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-14	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-15	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-16	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-17	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-18	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-19	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-20	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-21	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-22	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-23	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-24	$4.66	$7,873,672,723	13 / 14
2026-08-25	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	13 / 14
2026-08-26	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	13 / 14
2026-08-27	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	13 / 14
2026-08-28	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	13 / 14
2026-08-29	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-08-30	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-08-31	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-01	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-02	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-03	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-04	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-05	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-06	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-07	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-08	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-09	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-10	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-11	$4.66	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-12	$4.65	$7,876,462,496	14 / 14
2026-09-13	$4.65	$7,876,462,496	14 / 14
2026-09-14	$4.65	$7,876,462,496	14 / 14
2026-09-15	$4.65	$7,876,462,496	14 / 14
2026-09-16	$4.65	$7,876,462,496	14 / 14
2026-09-17	$4.65	$7,876,462,496	14 / 14
2026-09-18	$4.65	$7,876,462,496	14 / 14
2026-09-19	$4.65	$7,876,462,496	14 / 14
2026-09-20	$4.65	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-21	$4.65	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-22	$4.65	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-23	$4.65	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-24	$4.65	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-25	$4.65	$7,876,479,422	14 / 14
2026-09-26	$4.65	$7,876,584,685	14 / 14
2026-09-27	$4.65	$7,876,584,685	14 / 14
2026-09-28	$4.65	$7,876,584,685	14 / 14
2026-09-29	$4.65	$7,876,584,685	14 / 14
2026-09-30	$4.65	$7,876,584,685	14 / 14
2026-10-01	$4.65	$7,876,584,685	14 / 14
2026-10-02	$4.65	$7,876,584,685	14 / 14
2026-10-03	$4.65	$7,876,584,685	14 / 14
2026-10-04	$4.65	$7,876,584,685	14 / 14
2026-10-05	$4.65	$7,876,584,685	14 / 14
2026-10-06	$4.65	$7,876,584,685	14 / 14
2026-10-07	$4.64	$7,874,540,451	14 / 15
2026-10-08	$4.64	$7,865,900,451	14 / 15
2026-10-09	$4.63	$7,862,029,491	14 / 16
2026-10-10	$4.63	$7,862,029,491	14 / 16
2026-10-11	$4.63	$7,862,029,491	14 / 16
2026-10-12	$4.63	$7,862,029,491	14 / 16
2026-10-13	$4.61	$7,850,472,781	14 / 16
2026-10-14	$4.61	$7,850,722,781	14 / 16
2026-10-15	$4.61	$7,849,953,554	14 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	13	1
2026-06-01	8	12	1
2026-07-01	7	13	1
2026-08-01	6	14	1
2026-09-01	7	14	1
2026-10-01	7	14	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 7 · prior Apr 23

$72.00 → $69.00-4.2%

Melius ResearchOct 6

$75.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$41.25$82.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain EPS guidance at or above $4.10 for 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve at least 3% revenue growth annuallyPublished status: Broken
Maintain valuation discount to peer median PEP/E (TTM): 16.24x

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Masco outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on operational excellence and shareholder returns. The current thesis state remains intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and a commitment to maintaining guidance.

What's priced into Masco

The market appears to price MAS as cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors may not fully account for its recent improvements. The valuation reflects a low premium versus competitors, suggesting that there is room for upward adjustment if fundamentals improve.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with its priorities, including maintaining adjusted EPS guidance and improving operating margins. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, which could impact the company's credibility.

What Masco hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like JCI, CSL, and WMS. If these companies continue to exceed earnings expectations, it could provide a favorable backdrop for MAS. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could pose risks to MAS's momentum.