Simpson Manufacturing (SSD)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$176.62-1.25%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Sustain revenue growth near 9% YoY: rev +6.3% vs 9% target.
Simpson Manufacturing grows revenue about 9% yearly. Profit margins stay strong near 20%. Cash from operations rose sharply to $35.55M in Q1 2026. The company beats earnings estimates and guides for $8.24 EPS in 2026.
Revenue growth could slow to about 4.5% as analysts expect. Operating margin might fall below 19.5%. Cash flow growth may stall, pressuring investments. Valuation is near peer median, limiting upside.
The price is about 8% above our fair value near $184. Analysts expect 4.5% revenue growth, which is lower than recent 9% growth. Our fair value is 14% below the Street median, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
Breaks if: cash from operations falls below $25M next year
Breaks if: operating margin falls below 19.5% next year
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on maintaining strong operating margins and earnings growth. The current thesis state is stable, as management is successfully driving above-market volume growth despite a challenging sector backdrop.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not overly pessimistic expectations. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with an expectations gap indicating some potential for positive surprises.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, as management is on track to meet its priorities. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, given the recent history of misses in the industry.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like JCI, MAS, and CSL. If these companies continue to beat earnings and guide higher, SSD could benefit from positive sector momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, SSD's performance and management execution are encouraging for a multi-year view. Not investment advice.