AAON (AAON)

NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$68.85-1.11%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AAON’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	581.86M
EPS	—	0.639
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.31B
EPS	—	2.373
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.71B
EPS	—	3.596

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share	The company keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.10 per share.	Intact	dividend falls below $0.10 per share quarterly	Dividend per share: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.10 per share quarterly dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20260.1 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1428e6f2-a719-415c-aac1-6696360fc3d9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company consistently declared and paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. This demonstrates management's commitment to maintaining the dividend payout at a steady level. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain gross margin near 27-28% in FY26	A primary condition in AAON's published investment case. The stated target is >= 27% gross margin in FY26.	Broken	gross margin falls below 27% in FY26	Gross margin: 24.32% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 27% gross margin in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202624.321665 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1428e6f2-a719-415c-aac1-6696360fc3d9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures were $52.9M in 2026-Q1, reflecting investments in capacity expansion. Gross margin declined slightly from 26.8% in 2025-Q1 to 25.1% in 2026-Q1 due to unabsorbed fixed costs and ramp costs, consistent with management's explanation of intentional margin sequencing. The trajectory shows progress in capacity expansion with margin improvement expected over time. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow revenue to at least $2.07 billion in FY26 and convert backlog	The backlog doubled to $2.13 billion, showing strong demand.	Intact	revenue falls below $2.07 billion in FY26	Revenue: $626.976M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.07 billion revenue in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026626,976,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1428e6f2-a719-415c-aac1-6696360fc3d9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $322.1M in 2025-Q1 to $496.9M in 2026-Q1 (+54.3%), supported by a backlog that increased 107.4% year-over-year to $2.13B in 2026-Q1. Management has consistently emphasized converting backlog and increasing throughput, and the financials show delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-27	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-06	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-07	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-11	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$3.53	$2,673,300,000	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.53	$2,673,300,000	5 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$3.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$3.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$3.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$3.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$3.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	0
2026-06-01	5	0
2026-07-01	5	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	5	1
2026-10-01	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.10 per shareDividend per share: $0.10 per share
Maintain gross margin near 27-28% in FY26Published status: Broken
Grow revenue to at least $2.07 billion in FY26 and convert backlogRevenue: $626.976M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-53.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AAON outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented industrial business with a capacity expansion and execution story. The long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal has improved to mildly favorable, though management execution remains volatile and overall risk is high.

What's priced into AAON

AAON is valued at a sizable premium to peers, and the evidence suggests expectations are already demanding. The priced-in assessment is unjustified, with elevated fragility tied to expensive valuation and weak execution quality; confidence in that assessment is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and backlog conversion show strong progress: first-quarter revenue rose 54.3% year over year, while backlog more than doubled. Capacity spending is supporting expansion, but gross margin slipped amid ramp costs and unabsorbed fixed costs, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. A recent guidance raise is positive, but erratic earnings surprises and the risk of later cutting guidance remain concerns.

What AAON hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on management converting backlog while expanding capacity and improving utilization without lasting margin pressure. A reversal of the recent guidance raise would damage confidence in execution. Results and guidance from industrial bellwethers such as GEV, PH, and TT could also strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

AAON’s multi-year view is supported by strong recent performance and an expanding backlog, but the expensive valuation, high risk, and execution sensitivity make the thesis fragile. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	581.86M
EPS	—	0.639
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.31B
EPS	—	2.373
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.71B
EPS	—	3.596

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-27	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-06	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-07	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-11	$3.40	$2,416,980,000	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$3.53	$2,673,300,000	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.53	$2,673,300,000	5 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$3.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$3.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$3.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$3.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$3.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$3.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings