Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM)

NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.65+1.68%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Latham Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-27
Revenue	—	111.25M
EPS	—	-0.057
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	607.85M
EPS	—	0.179
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	644.43M
EPS	—	0.271

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve 12.7% adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026	Adjusted EBITDA is targeted to grow 12.7%.	Broken	adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 10% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew 11.9% year-over-year to $44.6 million in 2026-Q2, supporting the increased full year guidance range of $110-$120 million, implying about 15.2% growth. The trajectory shows progress but slightly below the midpoint target so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain CAPEX within $42-$48 million in 2026	Capital spending is controlled between $42 and $48 million.	Under Pressure	CAPEX exceeds $50 million or falls below $40 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $5.553M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $42-$48 million CAPEX. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20265,553,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate free cash flow near $112.5 million in 2026	Free cash flow is expected near $112.5 million.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $100 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $47.95M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$112.5 million FCF. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202647,950,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least 9% revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in Latham Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=9% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 14.39% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202614.38551 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bb45c933-3291-4e29-8b83-4e09818c4644. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.27 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.63B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.27	$628,705,510	5 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.27	$628,705,510	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.27	$628,705,510	5 / 7
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$628,703,410	3 / 5
2026-07-28	$0.27	$628,705,510	5 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$628,703,410	3 / 5
2026-07-30	$0.27	$628,705,510	5 / 7
2026-07-31	$0.27	$628,705,510	5 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$628,703,410	3 / 5
2026-08-02	$0.27	$628,705,510	5 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$628,703,410	3 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$628,703,410	3 / 5
2026-08-05	$0.27	$628,705,510	5 / 7
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$628,703,410	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$645,694,481	4 / 5
2026-08-09	$0.28	$643,979,440	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$0.28	$643,979,440	6 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$645,694,481	4 / 5
2026-08-13	$0.28	$646,592,680	5 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$645,694,481	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$645,694,481	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$645,694,481	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$645,694,481	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$645,694,481	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$645,694,481	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	1	2
2026-06-01	5	1	2
2026-07-01	5	1	2
2026-08-01	5	1	2
2026-09-01	4	1	2
2026-10-01	4	2	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve 12.7% adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain CAPEX within $42-$48 million in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Generate free cash flow near $112.5 million in 2026Free cash flow: $47.95M
Achieve at least 9% revenue growth in 2026Revenue growth: 14.39%

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-40.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Latham Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth business with execution risk, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it is loss-making and recent results have been mixed. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management’s stated priorities are on track overall, but the signal recently shifted from mixed to cautious.

What's priced into Latham Group, Inc.

SWIM is expensive versus peers, with a 3.12 premium measure, and the model’s confidence is low. The expectations gap is moderate, but the evidence does not show exactly what growth or earnings assumptions the market is pricing in; valuation fragility is assessed as low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s 2026 sales and adjusted EBITDA goals remain on track, though second-quarter EBITDA growth was slightly below the pace implied by the full-year goal. Capital spending is mixed against the full-year plan, and the August earnings miss and lowered guidance weigh on the setup; the snapshot also notes a later raised full-year outlook. The company remains loss-making, with elevated risk and a sector backdrop that is a headwind.

What Latham Group, Inc. hinges on

A favorable shift depends on management reversing the lowered guidance and raising it next quarter, as well as continued sales growth and progress toward the EBITDA goal. Sector signals matter too: continued strong results and guidance from JCI, MAS, and CSL could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.