Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM)
NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$6.54-3.11%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve 12.7% adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026: EBITDA growth not reported vs 12.7% target.
Latham Group aims for 9% sales growth in 2026. Adjusted EBITDA is targeted to grow 12.7%. Free cash flow is expected near $112.5 million. Capital spending is controlled between $42 and $48 million.
The stock trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio near 50. Revenue growth could slow below analyst expectations. Profit margins and cash flow may weaken if demand softens.
The price is about 18% above our fair value near $5. Analysts expect 9% revenue growth, which aligns with management guidance. Our view is cautious given the elevated valuation and recent pullback.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 10% in FY26
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $50 million or falls below $40 million in FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $100 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with medium confidence. SWIM is currently loss-making and has experienced recent earnings misses, but it has set ambitious growth targets that it is on track to meet.
The market appears to be pricing in a low level of fragility, but the valuation is considered expensive compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may not fully believe in the company's ability to meet its growth targets.
Management is focused on achieving net sales growth and adjusted EBITDA growth, both of which are on track. However, the company has a mixed track record with capital expenditures, and there is elevated risk due to its recent performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on whether SWIM can reverse its recent earnings miss and raise guidance in the next quarter. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers will be crucial, as their success or failure could impact SWIM's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has negatively impacted the outlook. This miss indicates that the company is not meeting growth expectations. The overall sector trends are also working against it, adding further pressure.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26
Management aims for a 9% year-over-year sales growth in 2026.
SWIM's future performance will depend on its ability to execute its growth plans and navigate sector challenges. Not investment advice.