Reading SRG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SRG free→Reading SRG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SRG free→NYSEReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 600% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.65. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.65, SRG's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 10× p/s (6.9× the 1× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.39 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 586% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.41x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$146.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$422.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,777.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Seritage can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth speeding up. It is now above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued revenue decline or no growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SRG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On June 1, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), a subsidiary (the "Seller") of Seritage Growth Properties (the "Company") entered into an option purchase and sale agreement (the “PSA”) with Arena Development Intermediate, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Buyer”) for the sale of the Seller’s property located in Dallas, Texas (the "Property"). The purchase price for the sale of the Property is $50,760,000, subject to certain adjustments as set f…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SRG Seritage Growth Properties | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
CBRE CBRE Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSGP CoStar Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
COMP Compass, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | elevated |
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue paying a cash dividend of $0.4375 per share on Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company maintained its preferred dividend at $0.4375 per share in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. This consistent dividend policy reflects a stable capital allocation strategy despite ongoing financial challenges, as net income remains negative.
“The Board declared a cash dividend of $0.4375 per share on Series A Preferred Shares.”
“The Board declared a cash dividend of $0.4375 per share on Series A Preferred Shares.”
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. These changes can impact Seritage's costs and property values.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates or signals future increases.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates steady or lowers them.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact Seritage's property performance. Strong sales may boost demand for retail space.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 15, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the…
Other Events. On April 20 2026, the Board of Trustees of Seritage Growth Properties (the "Company") declared a cash dividend of $0.4375 per share of the Company's 7.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares. The preferred dividend will be paid on July 15, 2026 to holders of record on June 30, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly auth…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 31, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding its financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Other Events. On February 25, 2026, the Board of Trustees of Seritage Growth Properties (the "Company") declared a cash dividend of $0.4375 per share of the Company's 7.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares. The preferred dividend will be paid on April 15, 2026 to holders of record on March 31, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto dul…