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SoFi Technologies Inc (SOFI)
NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$17.71+3.39%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, SOFI trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 167% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Market cap
- $21.97B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2020-09-18
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$6.64consensus
Range $4.96 – $10.70
vs price: +167% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$18.14consensus
Range $14.76 – $24.83
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $17, SOFI's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 40× p/e (3.7× the 11× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~163% near-term growth vs our ~13% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $6.51 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $16–$29. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
39.8x
peer 10.9x · own history —
Premium
3.7x peer
Growth the price needs
163%
our forecast 13%
Our fair value
$6.51
range $4.87 – $11.12
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 163% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
92nd pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted -10.54x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
1st pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -5.8% / 30d, n=6for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.12 → $0.11 (-5.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$208.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$626.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,296.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can affect borrowing costs. This impacts how much people spend and SoFi's business.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The FOMC raises interest rates or hints at future increases.
Confirms the other:The FOMC keeps interest rates the same and shows no signs of future increases.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-097d agoYahoo! Finance
Launch of SoFi Coach supports growth objectives.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting SOFI and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SOFI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SOFI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on SOFI and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping SOFI and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.