Reading UPST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UPST free→Reading UPST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UPST free→NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is fragile, and risk is high. Management's recent track record has been steady. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, UPST is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 78% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 UPST trades at 19× p/e — 1.8× the 11× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $18 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $30–$46. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 78% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -5.42x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.59 → $0.60 (+2.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -3.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$300.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$806.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,121.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below the median would signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Confirms:Revenue growth for the sector falls below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UPST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Upstar t Holdings, Inc. (“Upstart”) reported financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$30.00 – $46.00 (median $37.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | expensive | high |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | elevated |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | high |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Upstart aims to achieve total revenue of approximately $1.4 billion for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $213.4M in 2025-Q1 to $308.2M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the $1.4B target for 2026. The trajectory is delivering on this growth priority.
“For full-year 2026, Upstart continues to expect: Total Revenue of approximately $1.4 billion.”
“For full-year 2026, Upstart expects: Total Revenue of approximately $1.4 billion.”
Upstart aims for an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 21% for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. While specific EBITDA margin figures for 2026-Q1 are not provided, the company maintains its guidance for a 21% margin. The trajectory remains to be seen as financials for 2026 progress.
“Adjusted EBITDA (Margin % of Total Revenue) of approximately $294 million (21%).”
Upstart announced a repurchase of $100 million of common stock as part of its capital allocation strategy.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Upstart repurchased $100 million of common stock, indicating active capital allocation. This action aligns with their stated priority, showing delivery on this front.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 19, 2026, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (“Upstart” or the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors (the “Board”) elected Tim Wennes to serve as a Class I director on the Board, effective as of May 28, 2026. The Board has not yet determined whether Mr. Wennes will serve on any committees of the Board. Mr. Wennes has over 35 years of experien…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Chief Executive Officer Transition On February 10, 2026, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (“Upstart” or the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors (the “Board”) appointed Paul Gu, the Company’s Co-founder and current Chief Technology Officer, to succeed Dave Girouard as the Company’s Chief Executive Officer effective May 1, 2026. Mr. Girouard will…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 10, 2026, Upstar t Holdings, Inc. (“Upstart”) reported financial results for the fiscal quarter and full fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Sec…
Other Events. On February 19, 2026, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST), issued a press release announcing that it repurchased $100 million of common stock, a total of 3,193,294 shares at an average price of $31.31 per share, between February 12, 2026 and February 18, 2026 in open market transactions pursuant to a share repurchase program previously authorized by the Upstart Board of Directors. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference h…
“Adjusted EBITDA Margin of approximately 21%.”
“Upstart repurchased $100 million of common stock, a total of 3,193,294 shares.”