Reading ENVA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ENVA free→Reading ENVA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ENVA free→NYSEFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, indicating less shareholder-friendly moves. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $193.65. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $189 ENVA trades at 14× p/e — 1.3× the 11× p/e peer median, and above its own 9× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $151 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 25% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.97 → $3.96 (-0.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$345.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,475.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key metric. A drop below 15% could signal weakening demand or operational issues.
Confirms:Q2 total revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 total revenue growth reported above 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ENVA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Enova International, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release to announce its consolidated financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information included or incorporated by reference in this Current Report on Form 8-K under this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ENVA Enova International, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | full | elevated |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | elevated |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | expensive | high |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the acquisition of Grasshopper Bank by the second half of 2026, pending regulatory approval.
Position the company to achieve significant financial outcomes in 2026 and beyond.
Focus on improving operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Focus on increasing net income through revenue growth and cost efficiency.
Why it matters: Closing this acquisition could boost Enova's growth and lower funding costs. It is a key part of their strategy.
Confirms:They said they got approval from regulators. They also completed the purchase of Grasshopper Bank.
Disproves:There may be a delay in getting regulatory approval. The acquisition may not close by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: A rising charge-off ratio may show worse credit quality. This could hurt Enova's profits.
Confirms:Net charge-off ratio above 8% in the next quarters.
Disproves:Net charge-off ratio remains below 8%.
Why it matters: If operating income growth is below 5%, it shows cost management problems. This could worry investors about profits.
Confirms:Operating income growth is below 5% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth reported at or above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is crucial for investor confidence. A drop could signal financial struggles.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted earnings per share reported below $3.50.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted earnings per share reported above $3.50.
Why it matters: Closing this deal could boost Enova's growth and lower funding costs. It shows how well Enova can expand its services.
Confirms:Look for approval and the date when the deal will close.
Disproves:A delay or denial of the deal by regulators.
Why it matters: If net income growth is below 10%, it suggests that revenue and cost improvements are not translating into profits. This could worry investors.
Confirms:Net income growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop below median growth could signal trouble in the financial sector and for Enova.
Confirms:Enova's revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Enova's revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. RAOD Facility – Twelfth Amendment On March 30, 2026, Receivable Assets of OnDeck, LLC, a wholly-owned indirect subsidiary of Enova International, Inc. (the “ Company ”), amended that certain Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated December 17, 2018 (the “ RAOD Facility ”) by entering into that certain Amendment No. 12 to Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “ Twelfth Amendment ”) with Truist Bank, as administrative agent, an…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 23, 2025, Enova International, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release to announce its consolidated financial results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information included or incorporated by reference in this Current Report on Form 8-K under this