Reading CACC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CACC free→Reading CACC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CACC free→NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while compared with sector peers, CACC is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $548.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $548 CACC trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 11× p/e peer median. Our $429 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 28% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 35.77x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $11.21 → $12.00 (+7.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$137.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$402.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,441.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Positive net income shows the company is recovering and managing costs well. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported above $135.8M, continuing the positive trend.
Disproves:Q2 net income is below $100M. This shows a drop in profitability.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
New CFO appointment supports leadership stability and strategic direction.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 5, 2026, Jay D. Martin, Chief Financial Officer of Credit Acceptance Corporation (referred to as the “Company,” “Credit Acceptance,” “we,” “our” or “us”) and, as such, the Company’s principal financial officer and principal accounting officer, informed the Company that he has decided to retire as an officer and employee of the Company effec…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CACC Credit Acceptance Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | elevated |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | high |
19 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining positive net income despite challenging conditions.
Aim to enhance cash flow from operating activities to support business operations.
Strive to meet or exceed the EPS guidance set for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: A drop below 15% signals a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Achieving EPS guidance shows the company can meet its financial targets. This is important for investor trust.
Confirms one read:Q2 EPS reported at or above $10.71 per share.
Confirms the other:Q2 EPS falls below $9.50 per share.
Why it matters: The new CFO will change the financial plan. This will affect how investors feel.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better financial numbers than before.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows worse financial numbers than before.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can affect how people use credit. It also impacts CACC's results.
Confirms one read:Retail sales went up a lot compared to last month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or show weak growth compared to the previous month.
Why it matters: More cash flow means better efficiency and financial health. This helps with future investments.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities exceeds $346.8M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities drops below $300M in Q2.
CFO change indicates potential for fresh financial strategies.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth below under
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On June 9, 2026, Credit Acceptance Corporation (the “Company”, “Credit Acceptance”, “we”, “our”, or “us”) entered into the Fifteenth Amendment to the Sixth Amended a nd Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of June 9, 2026, among the Company, Fifth Third Bank, N.A., successor by merger to Comerica Bank and the other banks signatory thereto (collectively, the “Banks”) and Fifth Thir…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth below under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Credit Acceptance Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and details for the related May 5, 2026 webcast. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the…