Reading AFRM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AFRM free→Reading AFRM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AFRM free→NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. However, risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AFRM trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 241% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $74.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $72, AFRM's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 34× p/e (3.2× the 11× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~242% near-term growth vs our ~33% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $21 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $55–$87. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 242% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.88 → $0.83 (-6.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 72% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$268.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$684.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,386.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below 15% signals a slowdown in revenue growth for Affirm. This could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AFRM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, the Company issued a Shareholder Letter (the “Letter”) regarding its financial results for the third fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Letter is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and the information in Exhibit 99.1 is incorporated herein by reference. The Letter attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP f…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$55.00 – $87.00 (median $75.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-10
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | high |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | elevated |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SOFI SoFi Technologies Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 7 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve revenue between $4,175 and $4,205 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $659.2M in 2024-Q4 to $1,038.8M in 2026-Q3, showing progress towards the $4.2B target for fiscal year 2026. The trajectory indicates delivering on the stated revenue goal.
“Guidance: '$4,175 to $4,205 million' for fiscal year 2026.”
“Guidance: 'More than $46 billion Revenue' for fiscal year 2026.”
Management targets an operating margin between 9.5% and 11.5% for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income grew from -$73.5M in 2024-Q4 to $88.4M in 2026-Q3, indicating progress towards the targeted operating margin of 9.5-11.5% for Q4 2026. The trajectory shows improvement in operating efficiency.
Management focuses on increasing cash generated from operating activities.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operations increased from $74.6M in 2025-Q4 to $386.5M in 2026-Q3, demonstrating a strong focus on improving cash generation. The trajectory indicates effective capital allocation strategies.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, the Company issued a Shareholder Letter (the “Letter”) regarding its financial results for the second fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Letter is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and the information in Exhibit 99.1 is incorporated herein by reference. The Letter attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparab…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (e) Grant of Annual Equity Award to Founder and Chief Executive Officer On January 13, 2026, at the recommendation of its Compensation Committee (the “Committee”), the Board of Directors of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the grant of an equity award under the Company’s Amended and Restated 2012 Stock Plan (the “Plan”) consisting of p…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, the Company issued a Shareholder Letter (the “Letter”) regarding its financial results for the first fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the Letter is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and the information in Exhibit 99.1 is incorporated herein by reference. The Letter attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparab…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Second Amended and Restated Installment Financing Services Agreement On November 6, 2025, Affirm, Inc. (“Affirm”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into the Second Amended and Restated Installment Financing Services Agreement with Amazon.com Services LLC (“Amazon Services”) and Amazon Payments, Inc. (the “Restated Agreement”). On February 1, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), the Restated Agreement will supersede…
“Guidance: 'Operating Margin 9.5 to 11.5%' for Q4 2026.”
“Guidance: 'Operating Margin 1 - 3%' for Q1 2026.”
“Cash from operations increased to $386.5M in 2026-Q3.”
“Cash from operations was $173.7M in 2026-Q2.”
“Cash from operations was $374.6M in 2026-Q1.”