Reading BFH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BFH free→Reading BFH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BFH free→NYSEFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with BFH trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $101.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $103 BFH trades at 8× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $149 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $70–$115. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.71 → $2.75 (+1.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$148.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$360.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,926.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'elevated' to 'moderate'.
Risk changed. Risk label moved from elevated to moderate. This indicates a lower risk level.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Announcing a buyback shows confidence in the company and can support the stock price.
Confirms:Management has a new share buyback program.
Disproves:No announcement of a buyback program by the next earnings call.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BFH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On May 11, 2026, Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a Certificate of Designations (effective May 12, 2026) (the “Certificate of Designations”) with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware, establishing the voting rights, powers, preferences and privileges, and the relative, participating, optional and other rights, and the qualifications, limitations or restrictions thereof, of its 8.875% Fixed Rate Reset Non-Cumul…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$70.00 – $115.00 (median $98.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | fair | elevated |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | high |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Bread Financial announced a $600 million increase to its stock repurchase authorization.
Bread Financial aims to enhance operating income through revenue growth and cost management.
Bread Financial has increased its quarterly cash dividend to $0.23 per common share.
Why it matters: Earnings results show financial health and performance trends.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows more operating income. It also has a positive outlook.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows less operating income. It has a negative outlook.
Why it matters: A lower delinquency rate shows better credit performance and consumer health. It may boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 delinquency rate is below 5.0%.
Disproves:Q2 delinquency rate remains above 5.5%.
Why it matters: A lower loss rate shows better credit quality. This means better risk management.
Confirms:Q2 net principal loss rate reported below 7.0%.
Disproves:Q2 net principal loss rate remains above 7.5%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Q1 2026 Earnings Release”). Copies of the Q1 2026 Earnings Release and the related financial supplement are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 hereto, respectively.
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 4,800,000 depositary shares (the “Depositary Shares”), each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of its 8.875% Fixed Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series B, par value $0.01 per share (the “Series B Preferred Stock”), with a liquidation preference of $25 per Depositary Share (equivalent to $1,000 per share of Series B Preferred Sto…
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the launch of a public offering of depositary shares (the “Depositary Shares”), each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of its Fixed Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series B, par value $0.01 per share (the “Series B Preferred Stock”), with a liquidation preference of $25 per Depositary Share (equivalent to $1,000 per share of Series B Preferred Stock). A c…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 17, 2026, Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into separate, privately negotiated termination agreements (the “Capped Call Unwind Agreements”) with each of the financial institutions (the “Option Counterparties”) party to the capped call transactions (the “Capped Call Transactions”) that were previously entered into by the Company in connection with the issuance of its 4.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 (the “Note…