Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$25.89-4.04%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve approximately 21% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026: TTM operating margin 4.0% vs 21% target.
Upstart uses AI to grow revenue fast, aiming for $1.4 billion in 2026. Revenue rose from $213M to $308M in one year. The company targets a 21% profit margin in 2026. Insiders are buying shares, showing confidence.
Upstart faces legal risks and competition that could hurt growth. Funding for loans is uncertain. Profit margins may not reach targets. The stock is expensive compared to peers.
The market expects about 39% revenue growth and values the stock about 12% above our fair value near $29. Our fair value is 24% below the Street median, reflecting caution versus optimistic analysts.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 15% in 2026
Upstart aims for an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 21% for the full year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth bet, as UPST is currently loss-making and its recent financial performance has been weak. The thesis is in a watch state, indicating caution amid recent earnings misses.
The market has priced in an expensive valuation, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. However, this premium does not fully account for the current weak performance and the potential for further turbulence.
Management is focused on achieving $1.4 billion in total revenue for 2026, and recent results show strong sequential growth. However, the adjusted EBITDA margin has remained flat year-over-year, indicating mixed results in profitability.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like Visa, Mastercard, and American Express. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a tailwind for UPST; conversely, any misses or lower guidance from them could negatively impact UPST.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company aims for $1.4 billion in revenue. It also targets a 21% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026. However, the latest earnings report missed expectations. Capital concerns may hinder plans to repurchase $100 million of stock.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: No insider buying and increased insider selling over next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Material negative legal rulings or settlements announced
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $1.0 billion in 2026
Upstart aims to achieve total revenue of approximately $1.4 billion for the full year 2026.
In the next 1 to 3 years, UPST's trajectory will depend heavily on sector performance and management execution. Not investment advice.