Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$23.78-0.29%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Upstart Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.93 → 1.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	383.62M
EPS	—	0.329
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.42B
EPS	—	0.646
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.86B
EPS	—	1.933

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve approximately 21% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026	A primary condition in Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~21% adjusted EBITDA margin.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 15% in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain insider and management share buying	Insiders are buying shares, showing confidence.	Under Pressure	No insider buying and increased insider selling over next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage and resolve securities class action risks	A supporting condition in Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material adverse legal rulings or settlements.	Intact	Material negative legal rulings or settlements announced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least $1.4 billion revenue in 2026	A primary condition in Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1400 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $1.0 billion in 2026	Revenue: $364.708M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1400 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026364,708,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3bc2e5bd-1eee-4e27-8145-c5865ea6e89d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.93

$1.90 → $1.93 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.86B

$1.86B → $1.86B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.90	$1,863,357,190	8 / 10
2026-07-25	$3.37	$1,863,237,890	10 / 14
2026-07-26	$3.37	$1,863,237,890	10 / 14
2026-07-27	$1.90	$1,863,265,609	8 / 10
2026-07-28	$3.37	$1,863,237,890	10 / 14
2026-07-29	$1.90	$1,863,265,502	8 / 10
2026-07-30	$3.37	$1,863,237,890	10 / 14
2026-07-31	$1.90	$1,863,265,502	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$1.90	$1,863,265,502	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$1.90	$1,863,265,502	8 / 10
2026-08-03	$1.90	$1,863,265,502	8 / 10
2026-08-04	$3.37	$1,863,237,890	10 / 14
2026-08-05	$3.37	$1,863,237,890	10 / 14
2026-08-06	$1.90	$1,863,265,505	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$3.25	$1,863,350,930	10 / 14
2026-08-09	$3.25	$1,863,350,930	10 / 14
2026-08-10	$1.82	$1,862,136,646	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$1.82	$1,862,136,646	8 / 10
2026-08-13	$1.82	$1,862,136,646	8 / 10
2026-08-14	$1.82	$1,862,136,646	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$1.82	$1,862,136,646	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$1.82	$1,862,136,646	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$1.82	$1,862,136,646	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$1.82	$1,862,136,646	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$1.82	$1,862,136,646	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$1.82	$1,862,762,541	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$1.82	$1,862,762,541	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$1.82	$1,862,762,541	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$1.82	$1,859,093,587	7 / 10
2026-08-24	$1.82	$1,859,093,587	7 / 10
2026-08-25	$1.82	$1,859,093,587	7 / 10
2026-08-26	$1.82	$1,859,093,587	7 / 10
2026-08-27	$1.82	$1,859,093,587	7 / 10
2026-08-28	$1.82	$1,859,093,587	7 / 10
2026-08-29	$1.82	$1,860,092,818	7 / 10
2026-08-30	$1.82	$1,860,092,818	7 / 10
2026-08-31	$1.82	$1,860,092,818	7 / 10
2026-09-01	$1.82	$1,860,092,818	7 / 10
2026-09-02	$1.82	$1,860,092,818	7 / 10
2026-09-03	$1.82	$1,860,092,818	7 / 10
2026-09-04	$1.82	$1,860,092,818	7 / 10
2026-09-05	$1.84	$1,860,092,012	7 / 10
2026-09-06	$1.84	$1,860,092,012	7 / 10
2026-09-07	$1.84	$1,860,092,012	7 / 10
2026-09-08	$1.84	$1,860,092,012	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$1.84	$1,860,092,012	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-11	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-12	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-13	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-14	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-15	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-16	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-17	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-18	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-19	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-20	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-21	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-22	$1.85	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-23	$1.93	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-24	$1.93	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-25	$1.93	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-26	$1.93	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-27	$1.93	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-28	$1.93	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-29	$1.93	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-09-30	$1.93	$1,859,415,765	8 / 11
2026-10-01	$1.93	$1,859,380,050	8 / 11
2026-10-02	$1.93	$1,859,380,050	8 / 11
2026-10-03	$1.93	$1,859,415,765	8 / 11
2026-10-04	$1.93	$1,859,415,765	8 / 11
2026-10-05	$1.93	$1,859,415,765	8 / 11
2026-10-06	$1.93	$1,859,415,016	8 / 11
2026-10-07	$1.93	$1,859,454,659	8 / 11
2026-10-08	$1.93	$1,859,454,659	8 / 11
2026-10-09	$1.93	$1,859,454,659	8 / 11
2026-10-10	$1.93	$1,859,454,659	8 / 11
2026-10-11	$1.93	$1,859,454,659	8 / 11
2026-10-12	$1.93	$1,859,454,659	8 / 11
2026-10-13	$1.93	$1,859,454,659	8 / 11
2026-10-14	$1.94	$1,860,127,230	8 / 11
2026-10-15	$1.94	$1,863,398,829	7 / 11
2026-10-16	$1.93	$1,858,436,079	7 / 11
2026-10-17	$1.93	$1,858,436,079	7 / 11
2026-10-18	$1.93	$1,858,436,079	7 / 11
2026-10-19	$1.93	$1,858,436,079	7 / 11
2026-10-20	$1.93	$1,858,436,079	7 / 11
2026-10-21	$1.93	$1,858,436,079	7 / 11
2026-10-22	$1.93	$1,858,436,079	7 / 11
2026-10-23	$1.93	$1,858,436,079	7 / 11
2026-10-24	$1.93	$1,858,436,079	7 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	6	1
2026-06-01	8	6	1
2026-07-01	8	6	1
2026-08-01	8	6	1
2026-09-01	8	7	1
2026-10-01	8	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 13 · prior Jul 9

$39.00 → $28.00-28.2%

NeedhamOct 6 · prior Jul 7

$40.00 → $42.00+5.0%

$0$23.10$46.20

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve approximately 21% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain insider and management share buyingPublished status: Under Pressure
Manage and resolve securities class action risksDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve at least $1.4 billion revenue in 2026Revenue: $364.708M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Upstart Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth business with a loss-making earnings profile, not yet a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: company momentum improved and the signal moved to mixed, while recent performance remains weak and below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Upstart Holdings, Inc.

UPST carries a durable premium versus peers, and the valuation evidence classifies it as expensive. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the evidence supports; confidence in this valuation model is low. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to concentrated fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s 2026 revenue goal remains on track: revenue rose from $308 million in Q1 to $365 million in Q2, and the company has reiterated its $1.4 billion full-year goal. The approximately 21% adjusted EBITDA margin goal is mixed, as the Q2 margin was steady year over year, while consecutive earnings misses and a 43% estimated miss probability keep execution risk elevated. A negative capital-allocation filing and a credit-agreement event were reported on October 20, but the evidence gives limited detail about their effects.

What Upstart Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The next call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would add to the record of earnings misses, while continued delivery on revenue and margin goals would support the operating case. The evidence also flags interest-rate and sector conditions as swing factors, and points to earnings and guidance from V, MA, and AXP as signals to watch. Over the multi-year view, the central question is whether revenue growth can persist while earnings quality improves enough to support the premium valuation.