SoFi Technologies Inc (SOFI)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.62-1.02%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SoFi Technologies Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.82 → 0.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.31B
EPS	—	0.19
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.87B
EPS	—	0.591
Revenue growth	About 30%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.98B
EPS	—	0.816

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve 60 cents EPS in fiscal 2026	EPS target is 60 cents per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $0.40 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.12 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.60 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.12 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cd2da80c-1c73-47e0-9e03-379d4787731a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EPS doubled year-over-year to $0.12 in 2026-Q1 and remained at $0.12 in 2026-Q2. Management maintains a full-year adjusted EPS target of approximately 60 cents per share. The trajectory shows consistent quarterly EPS growth aligned with the annual target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve $825 million net income in fiscal 2026	SoFi aims for $4.655 billion revenue and $825 million net income in 2026.	Broken	Net income falls below $600M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted net income grew 134% year-over-year to $167 million in 2026-Q1 and 65% year-over-year to $160 million in 2026-Q2. Management maintains a full-year adjusted net income target of approximately $825 million with margin guidance near 17-18%. The trajectory shows strong growth but full-year delivery remains to be seen. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Successful adoption of new products like SoFi Coach	The company launched SoFi Coach to support growth.	Intact	No meaningful user adoption or revenue contribution from SoFi Coach within 12 months	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve $4.655 billion revenue in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in SoFi Technologies Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.655B total revenue.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $4.0B in FY26	Revenue: $153.577M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.655B total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026153,577,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cd2da80c-1c73-47e0-9e03-379d4787731a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.82

$0.81 → $0.82 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.98B

$5.75B → $5.98B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.81	$5,747,612,640	9 / 18
2026-07-25	$0.81	$5,746,859,090	9 / 18
2026-07-26	$0.81	$5,746,151,179	13 / 14
2026-07-27	$0.81	$5,746,151,179	13 / 14
2026-07-28	$0.81	$5,746,859,090	9 / 18
2026-07-29	$0.81	$5,746,860,200	9 / 18
2026-07-30	$0.82	$5,951,963,526	12 / 13
2026-07-31	$0.82	$5,950,136,651	13 / 14
2026-08-01	$0.82	$5,950,136,651	13 / 14
2026-08-02	$0.81	$5,930,445,960	9 / 18
2026-08-03	$0.81	$5,930,445,960	9 / 18
2026-08-04	$0.81	$5,930,445,960	9 / 18
2026-08-05	$0.82	$5,950,151,464	13 / 14
2026-08-06	$0.82	$5,950,151,464	13 / 14
2026-08-08	$0.81	$5,972,883,390	9 / 18
2026-08-09	$0.81	$5,972,883,390	9 / 18
2026-08-10	$0.82	$5,984,665,822	13 / 14
2026-08-12	$0.82	$5,984,665,822	13 / 14
2026-08-13	$0.81	$5,972,883,390	9 / 18
2026-08-14	$0.82	$5,984,665,822	13 / 14
2026-08-15	$0.82	$5,984,665,822	13 / 14
2026-08-16	$0.82	$5,984,665,822	13 / 14
2026-08-17	$0.82	$5,984,665,822	13 / 14
2026-08-18	$0.82	$5,984,665,822	13 / 14
2026-08-19	$0.82	$5,984,665,822	13 / 14
2026-08-20	$0.83	$6,007,338,572	14 / 15
2026-08-21	$0.83	$6,007,338,572	14 / 15
2026-08-22	$0.83	$6,007,338,572	14 / 15
2026-08-23	$0.83	$6,007,338,572	14 / 15
2026-08-24	$0.83	$6,007,338,572	14 / 15
2026-08-25	$0.83	$6,007,309,303	14 / 15
2026-08-26	$0.83	$6,007,310,591	14 / 15
2026-08-27	$0.83	$6,007,310,591	14 / 15
2026-08-28	$0.83	$6,007,310,591	14 / 15
2026-08-29	$0.83	$6,038,568,239	14 / 15
2026-08-30	$0.83	$6,038,568,239	14 / 15
2026-08-31	$0.83	$6,038,568,239	14 / 15
2026-09-01	$0.83	$6,038,568,239	14 / 15
2026-09-02	$0.83	$6,038,568,239	14 / 15
2026-09-03	$0.83	$6,052,417,166	14 / 16
2026-09-04	$0.83	$6,038,568,239	14 / 16
2026-09-05	$0.83	$6,038,568,239	14 / 16
2026-09-06	$0.83	$6,038,568,239	14 / 16
2026-09-07	$0.83	$6,038,568,239	14 / 16
2026-09-08	$0.83	$6,038,568,239	14 / 16
2026-09-09	$0.82	$6,038,293,636	14 / 16
2026-09-10	$0.82	$6,038,293,636	14 / 17
2026-09-11	$0.82	$6,038,293,166	15 / 17
2026-09-12	$0.82	$6,038,293,166	15 / 17
2026-09-13	$0.82	$6,038,293,166	15 / 17
2026-09-14	$0.82	$6,038,293,166	15 / 17
2026-09-15	$0.82	$6,038,293,166	15 / 17
2026-09-16	$0.82	$6,038,293,166	15 / 17
2026-09-17	$0.82	$6,038,293,166	15 / 17
2026-09-18	$0.82	$6,038,293,166	15 / 17
2026-09-19	$0.82	$6,038,293,166	15 / 17
2026-09-20	$0.82	$6,038,293,166	15 / 17
2026-09-21	$0.82	$6,038,293,166	15 / 17
2026-09-22	$0.82	$6,038,293,166	15 / 17
2026-09-23	$0.82	$5,984,097,732	14 / 16
2026-09-24	$0.82	$5,984,097,732	14 / 16
2026-09-25	$0.82	$5,984,103,982	14 / 16
2026-09-26	$0.82	$5,984,103,982	14 / 16
2026-09-27	$0.82	$5,984,103,982	14 / 16
2026-09-28	$0.82	$5,984,103,982	14 / 16
2026-09-29	$0.82	$5,984,103,982	14 / 16
2026-09-30	$0.82	$5,984,103,982	14 / 16
2026-10-01	$0.82	$5,971,825,866	14 / 16
2026-10-02	$0.82	$5,971,825,866	14 / 16
2026-10-03	$0.82	$5,971,825,866	14 / 16
2026-10-04	$0.82	$5,971,825,866	14 / 16
2026-10-05	$0.82	$5,971,825,866	14 / 16
2026-10-06	$0.82	$5,971,825,866	14 / 16
2026-10-07	$0.82	$5,956,978,807	14 / 16
2026-10-08	$0.82	$5,956,978,807	14 / 16
2026-10-09	$0.82	$5,956,978,807	14 / 16
2026-10-10	$0.82	$5,956,978,807	14 / 16
2026-10-11	$0.82	$5,956,621,631	14 / 16
2026-10-12	$0.82	$5,956,621,631	14 / 16
2026-10-13	$0.82	$5,953,405,698	14 / 16
2026-10-14	$0.82	$5,953,405,698	15 / 17
2026-10-15	$0.82	$5,953,241,175	15 / 17
2026-10-16	$0.82	$5,978,429,286	15 / 17
2026-10-17	$0.82	$5,978,429,286	15 / 17
2026-10-18	$0.82	$5,978,429,286	15 / 17
2026-10-19	$0.82	$5,978,429,286	15 / 17
2026-10-20	$0.82	$5,978,429,286	15 / 17
2026-10-21	$0.82	$5,978,429,286	15 / 17
2026-10-22	$0.82	$5,978,429,286	15 / 17
2026-10-23	$0.82	$5,978,429,286	15 / 17
2026-10-24	$0.82	$5,978,429,286	15 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	12	4
2026-06-01	8	12	4
2026-07-01	8	12	4
2026-08-01	8	12	4
2026-09-01	9	13	4
2026-10-01	10	12	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 23 · prior Aug 12

$19.00 → $16.00-15.8%

Goldman SachsOct 13 · prior Jul 9

$21.00 → $15.00-28.6%

$0$11.55$23.10

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve 60 cents EPS in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve $825 million net income in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
Successful adoption of new products like SoFi CoachQualitative condition
Achieve $4.655 billion revenue in fiscal 2026Revenue: $153.577M

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SoFi Technologies Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SOFI is a growth-oriented financial company with a durable valuation premium versus peers. Its long-term thesis is intact this week, with recent financial performance strong and its signal improving from mixed to mildly favorable.

What's priced into SoFi Technologies Inc

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and a small expectations gap. The evidence suggests that premium is justified by the current setup, but earnings quality remains fragile and the model confidence is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and adjusted income growth are strong, and management has raised its 2026 revenue guidance while keeping its income and earnings targets. Recent quarterly results were in line, but full-year delivery is still unproven, and the history of misses keeps earnings quality fragile.

What SoFi Technologies Inc hinges on

Over the next few quarters, meeting the raised revenue guidance and the adjusted income and earnings targets is central to the thesis. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage credibility, while rate cuts could weigh on the financial sector; continued strength from major sector peers could support sector momentum.