Semtech Corporation (SMTC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$140.85-4.16%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put SMTC beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Semiconductors is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 18% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 4% on a typical day and fell roughly 41% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskSemtech's data-center growth must keep compounding to support its premium valuation. Revenue growth accelerated from 16% to 33% year over year. Q2 FY2027 earnings beat consensus by 73.2%. SMTC trades at 76× P/E versus the 56× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite this premium. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 17%. The 76× multiple must be earned, and SMTC is down 27% from its recent high. Peer multiples imply a price about 64% below where it trades; our read remains intact. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. SMTC is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 17 analysts currently covering SMTC (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 11 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SMTC in the last 4 months.
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Compare SMTC with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMTC Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Semiconductors — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put SMTC next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Higher Q3 guidance and a 2030 outlook support the growth thesis, though details are unavailable.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $140.85
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $140.85.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Accelerate data center growth
Management's Investor Day discussion provides official strategic and long-term outlook evidence for growth objectives.
Raised EPS outlook materially exceeds prior guidance and consensus, supporting improved earnings execution.
Advances: Accelerate data center growth
LoRa Plus expansion supports data center growth objective.
Earnings growth aligns with valuation expectations.
Advances: Accelerate data center growth
Earnings and guidance beat supports data center growth objective.
Higher guidance supports growth objectives and validates current thesis.
Advances: Accelerate data center growth
Data center growth aligns with management's growth objectives.
