Semtech Corporation (SMTC)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$132.00+5.50%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Semtech Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+14.4% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.84 → 6.67 EPS · FY ending Jan 25, 2028 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	$405M–$415M	416.69M
EPS	$1.02–$1.08non-GAAP	1.132
EBITDA	$130.3M–$138.3Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating expenses	$109M–$115Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating income	$123M–$131Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating margin	31%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.5B
EPS	—	3.651
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.04B
EPS	—	6.674

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Data center segment revenue grows to at least $291M in Q1 2027	Its data center segment revenue rose to $291 million in Q1 2027.	Intact	Data center revenue falls below $274 million in Q1 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $257.6M in 2026-Q2 to $291.0M in 2027-Q1 and $341.9M in 2027-Q2, reflecting 33% year-over-year growth. Management consistently emphasized accelerating bookings and backlog growth, indicating delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin improves to at least 52.0% in Q1 2027	A primary condition in Semtech Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= 52.0%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 50.4% in Q1 2027	Gross margin: 53.75% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 52.0%. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 26, 202653.752439 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: dd4b8342-a19b-48e5-92ce-d6463307dee9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted gross margin improved from 52.8% in 2026-Q1 to 54.5% in 2027-Q2, showing margin expansion. Management's focus on portfolio optimization and margin growth aligns with this improving trend, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to at least $25.8M in Q1 2027	Gross margins improved to 52% and operating income turned positive at $25.8 million.	Improving	Operating income falls below -$18.3 million in Q1 2027	Operating income: $55.772M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $25.8 million. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 26, 202655,772,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: dd4b8342-a19b-48e5-92ce-d6463307dee9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-25 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$6.67

$3.83 → $6.67 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.04B

$1.66B → $2.04B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.83	$1,658,465,991	9 / 10
2026-07-25	$3.83	$1,658,465,991	9 / 10
2026-07-26	$3.85	$1,663,346,276	9 / 10
2026-07-27	$3.85	$1,663,346,276	9 / 10
2026-07-28	$3.85	$1,663,346,276	9 / 10
2026-07-29	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-07-30	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-01	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-02	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-03	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-04	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-05	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-06	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-09	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-10	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-12	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-13	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-14	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-15	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$3.85	$1,686,219,067	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$3.85	$1,667,233,161	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$3.85	$1,667,209,469	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$3.82	$1,664,601,650	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$3.82	$1,664,601,650	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$3.82	$1,664,601,650	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$3.82	$1,664,601,650	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$4.30	$1,713,634,659	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$4.30	$1,713,634,659	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$4.30	$1,713,634,659	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$5.84	$1,944,340,210	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$5.84	$1,944,340,210	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$5.84	$1,944,340,210	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$5.84	$1,944,340,210	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$5.84	$1,944,340,210	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$5.84	$1,944,340,210	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$5.84	$1,944,340,210	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$5.84	$1,944,340,210	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$5.84	$1,944,340,210	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$5.84	$1,944,340,210	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$5.84	$1,944,340,210	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$5.84	$1,944,340,210	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$5.84	$1,944,340,546	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$5.84	$1,942,491,176	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$5.84	$1,942,491,176	10 / 12
2026-09-25	$5.84	$1,942,491,176	10 / 12
2026-09-26	$5.84	$1,942,491,176	11 / 12
2026-09-27	$5.84	$1,942,491,176	11 / 12
2026-09-28	$5.84	$1,942,491,176	11 / 12
2026-09-29	$5.84	$1,942,491,176	11 / 12
2026-09-30	$5.84	$1,942,491,176	11 / 12
2026-10-01	$5.84	$1,942,491,176	11 / 12
2026-10-02	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-03	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-04	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-05	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-06	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-07	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-08	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-09	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-10	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-11	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-12	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-13	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-14	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-15	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-16	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-17	$5.86	$1,948,224,510	10 / 12
2026-10-18	$6.67	$2,043,251,291	10 / 12
2026-10-19	$6.67	$2,043,251,291	10 / 12
2026-10-20	$6.67	$2,043,251,291	11 / 12
2026-10-21	$6.67	$2,043,251,291	11 / 12
2026-10-22	$6.67	$2,043,251,291	11 / 12
2026-10-23	$6.67	$2,043,251,291	11 / 12
2026-10-24	$6.67	$2,043,251,291	11 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	2
2026-06-01	12	2
2026-07-01	12	2
2026-08-01	14	2
2026-09-01	15	1
2026-10-01	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 16 · prior Oct 5

$220.00 → $200.00-9.1%

Northland SecuritiesOct 16 · prior Aug 27

$182.00 → $186.00+2.2%

Morgan StanleyOct 16 · prior Aug 26

$195.00 → $205.00+5.1%

D.A. DavidsonOct 16

$230.00New observation · no comparable prior

BMO CapitalOct 13 · prior Aug 20

$155.00 → $230.00+48.4%

B.Riley FinancialOct 8

$210.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$126.50$253.00

3 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Data center segment revenue grows to at least $291M in Q1 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin improves to at least 52.0% in Q1 2027Gross margin: 53.75%
Operating income improves to at least $25.8M in Q1 2027Operating income: $55.772M

Next proof point

Nov 23, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

4.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-40.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Semtech Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented business with a high-risk profile, not a proven steady compounder, as it remains loss-making on the earnings-quality measure. The multi-year view is intact, supported by recent financial performance, but confidence is medium and momentum has weakened.

What's priced into Semtech Corporation

SMTC is expensive versus peers, with a 1.39 premium, and the valuation evidence points to expectations that are close to the current setup rather than a large gap: the expectations-gap measure is -0.05. The premium is marked as justified, and overall fragility is low because the evidence does not show a combined expensive, weak, and turbulent setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, the miss-risk assessment is quiet, though the company has a history of a deep miss and peers have recently missed. Over the multi-year view, management priorities are on track: data center revenue grew 33% year over year, adjusted gross margin improved, and operating income moved from a loss to positive results. A recent earnings beat is supportive, but the 25.2-point drop in company momentum is a concern.

What Semtech Corporation hinges on

The main near-term downside scenario is a guidance cut on the next call, which could lead analysts to lower estimates. The favorable scenarios depend on rate cuts and continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as NVDA, TSM, and AVGO. Over the multi-year view, sustained data center growth and margin gains matter most, but the evidence gives limited detail on the recent divestiture and debt issuance.