Reading MPWR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MPWR free→Reading MPWR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MPWR free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's track record has been fairly steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, MPWR is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1498.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,499 MPWR trades at 80× p/e, in line with its 67× p/e peer median. Our $1,143 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $1,500–$2,000. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 31% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.15 → $5.86 (+13.7% / 30d). 13 raised, 0 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$232.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$471.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,245.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
The valuation changed, moving from "expensive" to "full." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a tailwind, while recent financial performance is strong. The management score is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This will provide insights into MPS's performance and market conditions.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows big revenue growth or better margins.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows falling revenue or margins.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MPWR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 12, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the second quarter cash dividend of $2.00 per share to all stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 30, 2026. The dividend will be paid to stockholders on July 15, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$1500.00 – $2000.00 (median $1750.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MPWR Monolithic Power Systems | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim to achieve revenue in the range of $890 million to $910 million for Q2 2026.
Continue to maintain GAAP gross margin within the range of 55.1% to 55.7% for Q2 2026.
Manage non-GAAP operating expenses within the range of $167 million to $171 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This range shows if the company can keep its growth momentum. Meeting this target signals strong demand.
Confirms:Revenue reported in Q2 falls within the range of $890 million to $910 million.
Disproves:Revenue reported in Q2 is below $890 million.
Why it matters: Regular dividend payments show the company is doing well. It returns value to shareholders.
Confirms:The dividend of $2.00 per share is paid on July 15, 2026.
Disproves:The dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this segment shows MPS's competitive edge in power solutions. It supports overall revenue growth.
Confirms:Communications revenue was up more than 30% from last year.
Disproves:Communications revenue was flat or down from last year.
Why it matters: Higher expenses could hurt profits. It will show if the company is controlling costs effectively.
Confirms:Q2 operating expenses are at or below $225.1 million.
Disproves:Q2 operating costs are over $225.1 million.
Why it matters: Higher expenses may show problems and hurt profits.
Confirms:Operating costs are under $219.1 million.
Disproves:Operating costs are above $225.1 million.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin range shows the company is controlling costs. It shows good efficiency.
Confirms:GAAP gross margin reported in Q2 is within the range of 55.1% to 55.7%.
Disproves:GAAP gross margin reported in Q2 falls below 55.1%.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “1934 Act”), nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the 1934 Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Report or Completed Interim Review On February 26, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (the “Company”), after discussion with senior management, determined that the Company’s previously issued audited consolidated financial statements included in its annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, filed on March 3, 2025, and each of the Company’s…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) Departure of Chief Financial Officer On February 3, 2026, Bernie Blegen informed the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) of his intention to retire from his position as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Blegen will continue in his role until the issuance of the Company’s 2025 annual report on Form 10-K (the “Effec…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) regarding its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated by reference herein is financial information and commentary regarding results of the quarter and year ended Dece…