Reading ADI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADI free→Reading ADI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADI free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's track record is neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, ADI is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. If ADI cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $427.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $428 ADI trades at 47× p/e, below its 70× p/e peer median. Our $596 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $360–$515. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 28% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.54x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.99 → $3.32 (+11.0% / 30d). 24 raised, 0 cut, 26 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 13 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
14 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$157.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$279.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,572.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed, moving from fair to inexpensive. This indicates a shift in how the stock is valued relative to its peers, suggesting it trades at a lower price compared to similar companies. The macro backdrop remains a tailwind, while risk is moderate. Recent financial performance is strong, and management is capital-friendly.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Closing this deal could make ADI's products better. It could also help in power management.
Confirms:Completion of the acquisition by the end of 2026 as planned.
Disproves:The deal does not close because of regulatory or financial problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
AI growth in Ireland aligns with revenue growth objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Registrant, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference to such filing. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabili…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$360.00 – $515.00 (median $430.00) · 33 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADI Analog Devices | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 4 guided quarters · 51.9% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
ADI aims to consistently increase its quarterly dividend, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
ADI continues to forecast revenue growth, leveraging strong market demand and strategic positioning.
ADI is focused on maintaining a strong operating margin through disciplined cost management and strategic investments.
Why it matters: Increasing the dividend shows strong cash flow and management's trust in future earnings.
Confirms:A quarterly dividend increase is announced. This increase is higher than the current amount.
Disproves:There is no increase in the quarterly dividend. This is true even with strong financial results.
Why it matters: Guidance on revenue growth will show how well ADI is handling market changes.
Confirms one read:Guidance for Q3 revenue growth above 10% year-over-year.
Confirms the other:Guidance for Q3 revenue growth below 5% year-over-year.
Regulation FD Disclosure On May 19, 2026 Analog Devices, Inc. (the “Company”) and Empower Semiconductor, Inc. (“Empower”) announced the entry into a definitive agreement under which the Company will acquire Empower, a provider of integrated voltage regulators and power management solutions. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of calendar year 2026, subject to customary closing conditions, including the expiration of the applicable waiting period (and any extension thereof)…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As described in
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Registrant, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference to such filing. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabili…
Other Events On February 17, 2026, the Registrant announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.10 per outstanding share of common stock, an increase from the previously paid quarterly dividend of $0.99 per outstanding share of common stock. The dividend will be paid on March 17, 2026 to all shareholders of record at the close of business on March 3, 2026. A copy of the Registrant's press release is attached as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K a…