Reading ALAB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALAB free→Reading ALAB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALAB free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with ALAB's earnings yield being typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 156% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like NVDA and TSM. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $389.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $389, ALAB's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 80× p/s (6.7× the 12× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $148 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $153–$297. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 162% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.55 → $0.69 (+25.4% / 30d). 20 raised, 0 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 69% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 37.8% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 39.3% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$354.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$887.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,019.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could impact Astera Labs' performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth for Astera Labs reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALAB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1, is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$153.00 – $297.00 (median $250.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-05-19
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | high |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Astera Labs aims to achieve revenue within the range of $355 million to $365 million for the second quarter of 2026.
Astera Labs targets a GAAP gross margin of 73% for the second quarter of 2026.
Astera Labs aims to maintain GAAP EPS between $0.44 and $0.46 for the second quarter of 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Retirement of Chief Financial Officer On February 4, 2026, Michael Tate notified Astera Labs, Inc. (the “Company”) of his retirement as Chief Financial Officer of the Company, effective March 2, 2026. Mr. Tate remains an employee of the Company and will transition to a role as Strategic Advisor to the CEO until September 1, 2026, as described in th…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1, is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 5, 2026, Astera Labs, Inc. (the “Company”) and Amazon.com, Inc. (“Parent”) entered into a Transaction Agreement (the “Transaction Agreement”) and the Company entered into a Warrant Agreement with Amazon.com NV Investment Holdings LLC (“Warrantholder”), to acquire up to an aggregate of 3,262,299 shares of common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), of the Company (the “Warrant Shares”) at an exercise price of $142.82 p…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information provided under