Reading ARM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARM free→Reading ARM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARM free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is high. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, suggesting favorable conditions for growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 307% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers and any changes in interest rates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $396.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $413, ARM's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 100× p/s (8.4× the 12× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $102 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $210–$500. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 304% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.69x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.40 → $0.40 (+0.4% / 30d). 18 raised, 3 cut, 29 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 23.4% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$281.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$548.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,147.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings reports provide key insights into ARM's financial health and growth. Results can significantly impact stock price.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above the median for the sector.
Confirms the other:Earnings report reveals revenue growth below the median for the sector.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ARM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$210.00 – $500.00 (median $300.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ARM ARM HOLDINGS LIMITED | — | expensive | high |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may signal a broader slowdown affecting ARM. This could hurt ARM's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.