ARM HOLDINGS LIMITED (ARM)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$210.33+0.11%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ARM HOLDINGS LIMITED’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.07 → 3.02 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 24 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 24 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.52B
EPS	—	0.551
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	6.09B
EPS	—	2.206
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	8.3B
EPS	—	3.02

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Strength of Arm's competitive position	A supporting condition in ARM HOLDINGS LIMITED's published investment case. The stated target is maintain partnerships with at least 3 major tech firms.	Under Pressure	loses a major partnership with a tech firm	Qualitative: 1 major partnership (Qualcomm) in active legal dispute Oct 18 ruling escalates Qualcomm contract dispute; trial focused on billions in royalties; no confirmed partnership termination. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Profit margins of Arm Holdings	Arm Holdings is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI and CPU technologies.	Intact	falls below 10% profit margin next year	Net margin: 20.95% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=15% profit margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202620.94647 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8f9ea0d7-5c9d-416d-b457-9410c33c50a5. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of Arm Holdings	Arm Holdings is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI and CPU technologies.	Intact	falls below 25% YoY revenue growth next year	Revenue growth: 22.41% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=32% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202622.412156 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8f9ea0d7-5c9d-416d-b457-9410c33c50a5. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.02

$3.08 → $3.02 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$8.30B

$8.08B → $8.30B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.08	$8,081,501,580	35 / 35
2026-07-25	$3.08	$8,081,501,580	35 / 35
2026-07-26	$3.08	$8,081,501,580	35 / 35
2026-07-27	$3.04	$8,055,373,886	21 / 21
2026-07-28	$3.08	$8,081,501,580	35 / 35
2026-07-29	$3.08	$8,103,890,430	36 / 36
2026-07-30	$3.08	$8,091,515,870	36 / 35
2026-07-31	$3.07	$8,189,095,800	37 / 36
2026-08-01	$3.07	$8,189,095,800	37 / 36
2026-08-02	$3.07	$8,206,589,080	37 / 37
2026-08-03	$3.07	$8,206,589,080	37 / 37
2026-08-04	$3.07	$8,206,589,080	37 / 37
2026-08-05	$3.07	$8,206,589,080	37 / 37
2026-08-06	$3.07	$8,206,589,080	37 / 37
2026-08-07	$3.03	$8,180,328,310	22 / 21
2026-08-08	$3.07	$8,206,594,050	37 / 37
2026-08-09	$3.07	$8,206,594,050	37 / 37
2026-08-10	$3.07	$8,206,594,050	37 / 37
2026-08-11	$3.03	$8,180,328,310	22 / 21
2026-08-12	$3.06	$8,193,367,890	38 / 38
2026-08-13	$3.06	$8,193,367,890	38 / 38
2026-08-14	$3.03	$8,180,328,310	22 / 21
2026-08-15	$3.03	$8,180,328,310	22 / 22
2026-08-16	$3.03	$8,180,328,310	22 / 22
2026-08-17	$3.03	$8,180,328,310	22 / 22
2026-08-18	$3.03	$8,180,328,310	22 / 22
2026-08-19	$3.03	$8,180,328,310	22 / 22
2026-08-20	$3.03	$8,180,328,310	22 / 22
2026-08-21	$3.02	$8,220,835,013	23 / 22
2026-08-22	$3.02	$8,220,835,013	23 / 22
2026-08-23	$3.02	$8,225,155,144	23 / 23
2026-08-24	$3.02	$8,225,155,144	23 / 23
2026-08-25	$3.02	$8,225,155,144	23 / 23
2026-08-26	$3.02	$8,225,155,144	23 / 23
2026-08-27	$3.02	$8,225,155,144	23 / 23
2026-08-28	$3.02	$8,225,155,144	23 / 23
2026-08-29	$3.02	$8,225,155,144	23 / 23
2026-08-30	$3.02	$8,225,155,144	23 / 23
2026-08-31	$3.02	$8,225,155,144	23 / 23
2026-09-01	$3.02	$8,225,155,144	23 / 23
2026-09-02	$3.02	$8,225,155,144	23 / 23
2026-09-03	$3.02	$8,225,155,144	23 / 23
2026-09-04	$3.06	$8,260,181,460	23 / 23
2026-09-05	$3.06	$8,260,181,460	23 / 23
2026-09-06	$3.06	$8,260,181,460	23 / 23
2026-09-07	$3.06	$8,260,181,460	23 / 23
2026-09-08	$3.07	$8,277,256,194	23 / 23
2026-09-09	$3.07	$8,277,256,194	23 / 23
2026-09-10	$3.07	$8,277,256,194	23 / 23
2026-09-11	$3.07	$8,269,531,676	23 / 23
2026-09-12	$3.07	$8,269,531,676	24 / 23
2026-09-13	$3.07	$8,269,531,676	24 / 24
2026-09-14	$3.07	$8,269,531,676	24 / 24
2026-09-15	$3.07	$8,269,531,676	24 / 24
2026-09-16	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-17	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-18	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-19	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-20	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-21	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-22	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-23	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-24	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-25	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-26	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-27	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-28	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-29	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-09-30	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-10-01	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-10-02	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-10-03	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-10-04	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-10-05	$3.07	$8,269,531,137	24 / 24
2026-10-06	$3.06	$8,269,608,061	24 / 24
2026-10-07	$3.06	$8,269,616,555	24 / 24
2026-10-08	$3.06	$8,269,616,555	24 / 24
2026-10-09	$3.06	$8,269,616,555	24 / 24
2026-10-10	$3.06	$8,269,616,555	24 / 24
2026-10-11	$3.06	$8,269,616,555	24 / 24
2026-10-12	$3.06	$8,269,616,555	24 / 24
2026-10-13	$3.06	$8,269,627,406	24 / 24
2026-10-14	$3.06	$8,269,616,555	24 / 24
2026-10-15	$3.06	$8,269,616,555	24 / 24
2026-10-16	$3.06	$8,269,616,555	24 / 24
2026-10-17	$3.06	$8,269,616,555	24 / 24
2026-10-18	$3.06	$8,269,616,555	24 / 24
2026-10-19	$3.06	$8,269,616,555	24 / 24
2026-10-20	$3.06	$8,294,076,142	24 / 24
2026-10-21	$3.06	$8,294,076,142	24 / 24
2026-10-22	$3.06	$8,294,076,142	24 / 24
2026-10-23	$3.06	$8,301,328,642	24 / 24
2026-10-24	$3.02	$8,302,101,113	24 / 24

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	28	10	3
2026-06-01	29	11	2
2026-07-01	27	12	3
2026-08-01	28	13	2
2026-09-01	29	13	3
2026-10-01	29	13	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 29 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Strength of Arm's competitive positionPublished status: Under Pressure
Profit margins of Arm HoldingsNet margin: 20.95%
Revenue growth of Arm HoldingsRevenue growth: 22.41%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-52.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ARM HOLDINGS LIMITED outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ARM is a high-risk growth business whose valuation reflects substantial future opportunity, making the thesis dependent on continued execution. The current thesis is intact, though confidence in the assessment is low.

What's priced into ARM HOLDINGS LIMITED

ARM is expensive versus peers, with a 5.27-point premium and valuation supported by expected future opportunities. The evidence labels that pricing as justified and shows low fragility, but model confidence is low and valuation rose by 11.4 points recently.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong relative to the industry, and the rationale for the long-term thesis remains intact despite a recent downward price reaction. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but ARM has a history of a deep miss and industry peers have missed lately.

What ARM HOLDINGS LIMITED hinges on

Over the near term, rate cuts from the current 3.88% could support rate-sensitive technology shares. ARM’s sector backdrop also depends on whether bellwethers NVDA, TSM, and AVGO keep delivering strong results and guidance, or begin missing and guiding lower.