Analog Devices (ADI)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$395.44-2.11%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Analog Devices’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

16.66 → 16.66 EPS · FY ending Nov 1, 2027 · 20 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 20; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend increases steadily	A supporting condition in Analog Devices's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend >= $1.10 per share next quarter.	Intact	Dividend does not increase or falls next quarter	Dividend per share: $1.10 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend >= $1.10 per share next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 19, 20261.1 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b19138ab-8133-416b-a0a6-74dab7f31a62. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 38%	Profit margin is near 38%.	Improving	Operating margin falls below 30% next quarter	Operating margin: -493.82% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=37.5% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Nov 25, 2025-493.824271 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2d289edb-55a1-486b-9088-0ff3bbae24de. Source status: vendor observation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating margin increased from 30.7% in 2025-Q4 to 40.1% in 2026-Q3, with guidance for further improvement to 42.6% in 2026-Q4. The trajectory matches management's stated focus on disciplined execution and margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue grows about 37% year over year	Analog Devices grows revenue about 37% yearly.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 20% next year	Revenue: $4.022B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=37% YoY revenue growth. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 19, 20264,021,899,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b19138ab-8133-416b-a0a6-74dab7f31a62. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-01 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.66

$15.09 → $16.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$18.45B

$17.10B → $18.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 21
2026-07-25	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 21
2026-07-26	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-07-27	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-07-28	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-07-29	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-07-30	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-07-31	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-01	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-02	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-03	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-04	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-05	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-06	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-07	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-08	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-09	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-10	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-11	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-12	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-13	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-14	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-15	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-16	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-17	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-18	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-19	$15.09	$17,099,362,523	17 / 20
2026-08-20	$16.19	$17,973,595,410	17 / 20
2026-08-21	$16.44	$18,293,483,022	19 / 21
2026-08-22	$16.48	$18,293,483,022	19 / 21
2026-08-23	$16.48	$18,293,483,022	20 / 22
2026-08-24	$16.58	$18,356,379,573	20 / 22
2026-08-25	$16.58	$18,395,551,987	20 / 22
2026-08-26	$16.58	$18,395,551,987	20 / 22
2026-08-27	$16.58	$18,395,551,987	20 / 22
2026-08-28	$16.58	$18,395,551,987	20 / 22
2026-08-29	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-08-30	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-08-31	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-01	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-02	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-03	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-04	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-05	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-06	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-07	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-08	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-09	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-10	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-11	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-12	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-13	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 22
2026-09-14	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-15	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-16	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-17	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-18	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-19	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-20	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-21	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-22	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-23	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-24	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-25	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-26	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-27	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-28	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-29	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-09-30	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-01	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-02	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-03	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-04	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-05	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-06	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-07	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-08	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-09	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-10	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-11	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-12	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-13	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	19 / 22
2026-10-14	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 23
2026-10-15	$16.66	$18,445,500,272	20 / 23

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	29	6	1
2026-06-01	28	6	0
2026-07-01	27	6	0
2026-08-01	31	6	0
2026-09-01	31	4	0
2026-10-01	30	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 30 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend increases steadilyDividend per share: $1.10 per share
Operating margin near 38%Operating margin: -493.82%
Revenue grows about 37% year over yearRevenue: $4.022B

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Analog Devices outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and margin improvement. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been neutral compared to peers, but management is on track with its priorities.

What's priced into Analog Devices

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with ADI appearing cheap compared to peers. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully anticipate the potential for further revenue and margin growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management executing on its priorities of revenue growth and margin expansion. The near-term risk of missing guidance exists, but the probability is low, suggesting a steady performance ahead.

What Analog Devices hinges on

The thesis hinges on key factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector leaders like NVDA and TSM. Additionally, any changes in guidance from ADI could significantly impact investor sentiment.