Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$1210.86-3.07%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Monolithic Power Systems’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

35.92 → 36.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain gross margin between 55.1% and 55.7% in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Monolithic Power Systems's published investment case. The stated target is 55.1%-55.7%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 55.1% in Q2 2026	Gross margin: 55.18% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 55.1%-55.7%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202655.175079 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e7691042-8767-489b-ac05-ba97b2375520. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP gross margin has been stable around 55.1%-55.3% from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2, with guidance for 55.2%-55.8% in 2026-Q3. Management is maintaining gross margin within the targeted range, delivering consistent profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Control non-GAAP operating expenses near $167-$171 million in Q2 2026	Operating costs are controlled around $170 million.	Intact	Operating expenses rise above $171 million in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. GAAP operating expenses rose from $203.9M in 2026-Q1 to $237.2M in 2026-Q2, with guidance to control expenses within $252.7M-$258.7M in 2026-Q3. Management is maintaining cost discipline with a controlled upward trend in operating expenses. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue reaches $890-$910 million in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Monolithic Power Systems's published investment case. The stated target is $890-$910 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $890 million in Q2 2026	Revenue: $980.642M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $890-$910 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026980,642,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e7691042-8767-489b-ac05-ba97b2375520. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$36.02

$30.57 → $36.02 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.35B

$4.57B → $5.35B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$30.57	$4,567,663,623	10 / 11
2026-07-25	$30.59	$4,551,393,580	14 / 13
2026-07-26	$30.59	$4,551,393,580	14 / 13
2026-07-27	$30.59	$4,551,393,580	14 / 13
2026-07-28	$30.60	$4,560,960,000	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$30.60	$4,560,960,000	10 / 11
2026-07-30	$30.59	$4,551,393,580	14 / 13
2026-07-31	$30.59	$4,551,393,580	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$33.12	$4,957,520,686	10 / 10
2026-08-02	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-03	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-04	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-06	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-07	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$34.80	$5,177,637,880	14 / 14
2026-08-09	$34.80	$5,177,637,880	14 / 14
2026-08-10	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$34.80	$5,177,637,880	14 / 14
2026-08-13	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-14	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$34.82	$5,184,307,071	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$35.14	$5,230,891,846	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 12
2026-08-25	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 12
2026-08-26	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 12
2026-08-27	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 12
2026-08-28	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 12
2026-08-29	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 12
2026-08-30	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 12
2026-08-31	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 12
2026-09-01	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 12
2026-09-02	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 12
2026-09-03	$35.92	$5,338,899,571	9 / 12
2026-09-04	$35.92	$5,338,972,933	9 / 12
2026-09-05	$35.92	$5,338,972,933	10 / 12
2026-09-06	$35.92	$5,338,972,933	10 / 12
2026-09-07	$35.92	$5,338,972,933	10 / 12
2026-09-08	$35.92	$5,338,972,933	10 / 12
2026-09-09	$35.92	$5,338,972,933	10 / 12
2026-09-10	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-11	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-12	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-13	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-14	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-15	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-16	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-17	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-18	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-19	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-20	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-21	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-22	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-23	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-24	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-25	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-26	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-27	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-28	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-29	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-09-30	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-10-01	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-10-02	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-10-03	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-10-04	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-10-05	$35.92	$5,339,252,933	10 / 12
2026-10-06	$36.02	$5,350,872,933	10 / 12
2026-10-07	$36.02	$5,350,872,933	10 / 12
2026-10-08	$36.02	$5,350,872,933	10 / 13
2026-10-09	$36.02	$5,350,872,933	10 / 13
2026-10-10	$36.02	$5,350,872,933	10 / 13
2026-10-11	$36.02	$5,350,872,933	10 / 13
2026-10-12	$36.02	$5,350,872,933	10 / 13
2026-10-13	$36.02	$5,350,872,933	10 / 13
2026-10-14	$36.02	$5,350,872,933	10 / 13
2026-10-15	$36.02	$5,350,872,933	10 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	2	1
2026-06-01	14	2	0
2026-07-01	14	2	0
2026-08-01	15	2	0
2026-09-01	16	1	0
2026-10-01	16	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain gross margin between 55.1% and 55.7% in Q2 2026Gross margin: 55.18%
Control non-GAAP operating expenses near $167-$171 million in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches $890-$910 million in Q2 2026Revenue: $980.642M

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Monolithic Power Systems outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder, with a focus on consistent revenue growth and margin stability. The current thesis state is intact, but the recent financial performance has shown some signs of weakness.

What's priced into Monolithic Power Systems

The market currently reflects an expensive valuation compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that investors are anticipating continued strong performance, but the high valuation may limit upside potential if results do not meet expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its revenue and margin goals, which could support fundamentals in the near term. However, there is a low probability of missing guidance, and recent changes in company momentum indicate some caution.

What Monolithic Power Systems hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of sector leaders like NVDA and TSM. Additionally, any cuts to guidance in the upcoming earnings call could negatively impact sentiment.