Reading RYN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RYN free→Reading RYN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RYN free→NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, RYN is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 the market pays 33× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 55× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $36 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $24–$26. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 40% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -36%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.57x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.10 (-11.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$91.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$252.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,463.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 17.7 points (from 46.4 to 64.1).
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'fair'.
As of June 15, 2026, valuation rose. The valuation label changed from "expensive" to "inexpensive.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher pro forma net income shows that the merger is going well and costs are managed.
Confirms:Pro forma net income for Q2 2026 exceeds $20 million.
Disproves:Pro forma net income for Q2 2026 falls below $15 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RYN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Rayonier Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibit, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$24.00 – $26.00 (median $25.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-19
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RYN Rayonier | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | fair | moderate |
WPC W. P. Carey | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | low |
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | low |
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to prioritize maintaining the dividend payout to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Increase cash flow from operations to support business activities.
Why it matters: This report will show if Rayonier can improve its operating income and cash flow. Investors will look closely at these numbers.
Confirms one read:Operating income is now above -$45.7M. Cash from operations has risen from $34.6M.
Confirms the other:Operating income is still below -$45.7M. Cash from operations remains under $34.6M.
Why it matters: Getting the expected $40 million in annual savings would show the merger makes sense.
Confirms:Rayonier reports achieving at least $10 million in cost synergies by Q3 2026.
Disproves:Rayonier reports no cost synergies achieved by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A rebound in sector revenue growth could boost Rayonier's performance and outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, showing a positive trend.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down, showing ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means costs are under control. This shows the merger is working.
Confirms:Operating income for Q2 2026 shows an increase of at least 20% compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating income for Q2 2026 goes down or changes by less than 5% from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The special dividend of $1.40 per share may change how investors feel and affect stock performance.
Confirms:Rayonier's share price goes up more than 5% after the special dividend on December 12, 2025.
Disproves:Rayonier's share price declines or remains flat after the special dividend payment.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key for Rayonier to support its dividend and growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up a lot compared to the last quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes down or stays the same compared to the last quarter.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 5, 2026, Ashlee Townsend Cribb informed Rayonier Inc. (“Rayonier” or the “Company”) that she is resigning as Executive Vice President, Wood Products, of the Company, effective March 20, 2026, to pursue a CEO role with a privately-owned company. Ms. Cribb will remain at the Company until March 20, 2026, to assist with the orderly transition…
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. On, and effective as of, March 12, 2026, the Audit Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Rayonier Inc. (the “Company”) approved the dismissal of Ernst & Young LLP (“EY”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm. Also on, and effective as of, March 12, 2026, the Committee approved the engagement of KPMG LLP (“KPMG”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the Company’s fiscal year…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, Rayonier Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibit, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exch…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed in Rayonier’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on February 2, 2026, at the effective time of the Merger, Wayne Wasechek was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Rayonier. Additionally, as previously described in the joint proxy statement/prospectus included in the registration statement on Form S…