Rayonier (RYN)

NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.65-0.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Rayonier’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	429.52M
EPS	—	0.149
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.51B
EPS	—	0.425
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.64B
EPS	—	0.567

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase cash from operations to support business	Cash from operations rose to $34.6 million.	Improving	Cash from operations falls below $27.7 million next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $145.169M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $34.6 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026145,169,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend payout near $0.26 per share	The company pays a $0.26 dividend per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.26 in FY26-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.26 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.26 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 02188833-3d0e-439b-9e26-3a71c689953b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve operating income from recent loss	A primary condition in Rayonier's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income improves toward positive territory.	Improving	Operating income remains negative or worsens next 4 quarters	Operating income: $34.615M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves toward positive territory. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202634,615,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 02188833-3d0e-439b-9e26-3a71c689953b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain strong revenue growth post-merger	A primary condition in Rayonier's published investment case. The stated target is >=78% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 78% in FY26	Revenue growth: 272.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=78% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026272.147966 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 02188833-3d0e-439b-9e26-3a71c689953b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.66 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.60B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.66	$1,602,152,730	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$0.66	$1,602,152,730	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$0.66	$1,602,152,730	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$0.66	$1,602,152,730	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$0.66	$1,602,152,730	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$0.65	$1,603,202,730	5 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-31	$0.65	$1,603,202,730	5 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	$0.65	$1,603,202,730	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$0.65	$1,603,202,730	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$0.65	$1,603,202,730	5 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,604,652,730	4 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,604,652,730	4 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,607,974,500	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,607,974,500	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	4
2026-06-01	2	4
2026-07-01	2	4
2026-08-01	2	4
2026-09-01	2	4
2026-10-01	2	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 16

$20.00New observation · no comparable prior

Seaport GlobalOct 8

$30.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$16.50$33.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase cash from operations to support businessCash from operations: $145.169M
Maintain dividend payout near $0.26 per shareDividend per share: $0.26 per share
Improve operating income from recent lossOperating income: $34.615M
Sustain strong revenue growth post-mergerRevenue growth: 272.15%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Rayonier outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a timber and real estate business with a merger-integration and operational-improvement thesis. The signal has recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but the thesis remains on watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Rayonier

The valuation is tagged as justified, with low fragility, while the model shows a negative expectations gap and a 1.5% premium versus peers. That points to limited room for disappointment in expectations, despite the value factor being rated cheap; confidence in this read is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, integration is on track: management reports post-merger improvement and has set a $40 million annual synergy goal within 24 months. Real Estate results are above prior guidance, while Wood Products improved from Q1 to Q2, though both priorities are rated mixed and recent overall performance is weak. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but a guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk.

What Rayonier hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on realizing merger synergies and sustaining progress in Real Estate and Wood Products. Federal Reserve rate cuts or continued strength among sector peers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker guidance would challenge the operating case.