Reading RUN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RUN free→Reading RUN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RUN free→NASDAQIndustrialsSolarSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly related to the bellwether NXT. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.64. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 RUN trades at 6× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $12–$23. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 54% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 37%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.60x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.23 (+14.6% / 30d). 4 raised, 4 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 60.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$334.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$739.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,708.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'elevated' to 'high'.
As of June 16, 2026, risk rose, changing from an elevated to a high level. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. The earnings quality is described as fragile, indicating potential concerns about financial stability.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Sunrun. Strong growth signals business health.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RUN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Sunrun Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. In the press release, the Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on May 6, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$12.00 – $23.00 (median $17.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RUN Sunrun | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support business growth.
Why it matters: This range confirms if Sunrun's growth momentum continues. A drop below signals weakness.
Confirms:Q2 Aggregate Subscriber Value reported within the range of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion.
Disproves:Q2 Aggregate Subscriber Value falls below $1.1 billion.
Why it matters: Better operating income helps Sunrun manage its costs.
Confirms:Operating income is up more than 15% from last year.
Disproves:Operating income is down compared to last year.
Why it matters: Hitting this target means good cash flow management. Not meeting it shows financial trouble.
Confirms:Q2 Cash Generation reported at or above $250 million.
Disproves:Q2 Cash Generation was below $250 million.
Why it matters: This range shows the company is creating value. If it falls below, there are problems.
Confirms:Q2 Contracted Net Value Creation reported within $100 million to $200 million.
Disproves:Q2 Contracted Net Value Creation falls below $100 million.
Why it matters: Keeping or growing Subscriber Additions is important for future revenue. A drop shows market problems.
Confirms one read:Subscriber Additions in Q2 stabilize or grow compared to Q1's 17,665.
Confirms the other:Subscriber Additions in Q2 decline from Q1's 17,665.
Why it matters: Cash flow stability is key for Sunrun's financial health and growth plans.
Confirms one read:Cash flow from operations is positive and stays above $10 million.
Confirms the other:Cash flow from operations is negative for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: If sector growth picks up, it could benefit Sunrun's revenue. It would indicate a shift in the maturing phase of the sector.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth reported above 10% in the next quarter.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth reported below 5% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow from operations shows better efficiency. This is key for funding growth without more debt.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported as positive for Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations reported as negative for Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Sunrun Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. In the press release, the Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on February 26, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorpor…