Sunrun (RUN)
NASDAQIndustrialsSolarSnapshot 2026-10-29
$7.48-1.45%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSolarSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put RUN beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Building Products is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Continue improving operating income: Operating income: $34.79M.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 63% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 20%, softest on free-cash-flow yield.
View QualityManagement screens weak on margins, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 68% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskSunrun’s bet is expanding distributed power plants for grid and AI data center applications, with revenue growth accelerating. Q2 FY2026 revenue grew 53% year over year, and GAAP earnings beat consensus. RUN trades at 5× P/E versus an 18.8× peer median; expectations look modest versus our view. The thesis risk is operating income remaining under pressure, alongside high risk and an unfavorable sector backdrop. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 16%. Peer multiples imply a price about 60% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. RUN is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 21 analysts currently covering RUN (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for RUN in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare RUN with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUN Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Building Products — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put RUN next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Leverage distributed power plants for grid and AI data center applications
Partnership enhances grid and AI data center applications.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $7.48
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $7.48.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Leverage distributed power plants for grid and AI data center applications
Significant event enhances distributed power plant strategy.
Threatens: Increase Aggregate Subscriber Value and Contracted Net Value Creation
Customer dissatisfaction may impact subscriber value and growth.
Legal issues could hinder expansion and cash generation.
Advances: Expand storage-first strategy and networked storage capacity
Q2 earnings beat supports storage-first strategy expansion.
Threatens: Improve Cash Generation excluding equipment safe harbor investments
Cash outlook cut threatens cash generation improvement objective.
Advances: Expand storage-first strategy and networked storage capacity
Targets growth align with storage-first strategy.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth
2026 outlook cut impacts revenue growth expectations.
