Sunrun (RUN)

NASDAQIndustrialsSolarSnapshot 2026-10-23

$7.58-1.56%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sunrun’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+53.2% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.43 → 0.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	790.32M
EPS	—	0.204
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.12B
EPS	—	1.334
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.26B
EPS	—	0.661

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain positive cash flow from operations	Cash from operations turned positive at $10.6M, supporting growth.	Improving	Cash from operations turns negative again next year	Cash from operations: $-175.556M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations remains positive. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-175,556,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Continue improving operating income	Operating losses are shrinking, improving from -$115M to -$44M.	Under Pressure	Operating loss worsens beyond -$50M next year	Operating income: $34.788M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves to less than -$20M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202634,788,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ae63c871-c7f0-4a08-aad6-79327bad9cdc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Realize revenue growth from Tesla partnership	A supporting condition in Sunrun's published investment case. The stated target is Tesla-related revenue contributes meaningfully to growth.	Intact	Tesla partnership fails to generate expected revenue impact by end of FY26	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near recent levels	A primary condition in Sunrun's published investment case. The stated target is >=40% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 20% next year	Revenue growth: 52.81% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=40% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202652.807481 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ae63c871-c7f0-4a08-aad6-79327bad9cdc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.66

$1.02 → $0.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.26B

$3.26B → $3.26B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.02	$3,256,576,060	10 / 20
2026-07-25	$1.17	$3,254,874,910	9 / 20
2026-07-26	$1.17	$3,254,874,910	9 / 20
2026-07-27	$1.01	$3,254,874,910	10 / 20
2026-07-28	$1.01	$3,254,874,910	10 / 20
2026-07-29	$1.01	$3,254,874,910	10 / 20
2026-07-30	$1.01	$3,254,874,910	10 / 20
2026-07-31	$0.47	$3,277,691,149	12 / 16
2026-08-01	$0.47	$3,277,691,149	12 / 16
2026-08-02	$0.47	$3,277,691,149	12 / 16
2026-08-03	$0.47	$3,277,691,149	12 / 16
2026-08-04	$0.47	$3,277,691,149	12 / 16
2026-08-05	$0.47	$3,277,691,149	12 / 16
2026-08-06	$1.01	$3,254,874,910	10 / 20
2026-08-08	$1.15	$3,416,926,860	10 / 21
2026-08-09	$1.04	$3,231,773,210	11 / 20
2026-08-10	$1.04	$3,231,773,210	11 / 20
2026-08-12	$0.49	$3,272,491,730	12 / 16
2026-08-13	$0.94	$3,225,173,210	12 / 20
2026-08-14	$0.49	$3,272,491,730	12 / 16
2026-08-15	$0.49	$3,272,491,730	12 / 16
2026-08-16	$0.49	$3,272,491,730	12 / 16
2026-08-17	$0.49	$3,272,491,730	12 / 16
2026-08-18	$0.49	$3,272,491,730	12 / 16
2026-08-19	$0.49	$3,272,491,730	12 / 16
2026-08-20	$0.48	$3,246,811,349	12 / 16
2026-08-21	$0.49	$3,245,189,699	12 / 16
2026-08-22	$0.49	$3,245,189,699	12 / 16
2026-08-23	$0.49	$3,245,189,699	11 / 15
2026-08-24	$0.49	$3,245,189,699	11 / 15
2026-08-25	$0.49	$3,245,189,699	11 / 15
2026-08-26	$0.49	$3,245,189,699	11 / 15
2026-08-27	$0.49	$3,245,189,699	11 / 15
2026-08-28	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-08-29	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-08-30	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-08-31	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-01	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-02	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-03	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-04	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-05	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-06	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-07	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-08	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-09	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-10	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-11	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-12	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-13	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-14	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-15	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-16	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-17	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-18	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-19	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-20	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-21	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-22	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 15
2026-09-23	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 14
2026-09-24	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	11 / 14
2026-09-25	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	10 / 14
2026-09-26	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	10 / 14
2026-09-27	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	10 / 14
2026-09-28	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	10 / 14
2026-09-29	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	10 / 14
2026-09-30	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	10 / 14
2026-10-01	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	10 / 14
2026-10-02	$0.43	$3,228,289,699	10 / 14
2026-10-03	$0.43	$3,217,993,309	10 / 14
2026-10-04	$0.38	$3,168,816,444	10 / 14
2026-10-05	$0.38	$3,168,816,444	10 / 14
2026-10-06	$0.38	$3,168,816,444	10 / 14
2026-10-07	$0.38	$3,168,816,444	10 / 14
2026-10-08	$0.39	$3,149,866,303	10 / 14
2026-10-09	$0.39	$3,149,866,303	10 / 14
2026-10-10	$0.56	$3,157,521,183	9 / 14
2026-10-11	$0.56	$3,157,521,183	9 / 14
2026-10-12	$0.56	$3,157,521,183	9 / 13
2026-10-13	$0.56	$3,157,521,183	9 / 13
2026-10-14	$0.56	$3,157,521,183	9 / 13
2026-10-15	$0.66	$3,257,567,204	9 / 13
2026-10-16	$0.66	$3,257,567,204	9 / 13
2026-10-17	$0.66	$3,257,567,204	9 / 13
2026-10-18	$0.66	$3,257,567,204	9 / 13
2026-10-19	$0.66	$3,257,567,204	9 / 13
2026-10-20	$0.66	$3,257,578,734	9 / 13
2026-10-21	$0.66	$3,257,578,734	9 / 13
2026-10-22	$0.66	$3,257,578,734	9 / 13
2026-10-23	$0.66	$3,257,578,734	9 / 13
2026-10-24	$0.66	$3,257,578,734	9 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	10
2026-06-01	12	10
2026-07-01	12	10
2026-08-01	12	10
2026-09-01	12	9
2026-10-01	12	9

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

SusquehannaOct 14 · prior Jul 10

$18.00 → $13.00-27.8%

Morgan StanleyOct 14

$10.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesOct 9

$7.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Apr 21

$14.00 → $12.00-14.3%

Goldman SachsOct 8 · prior Sep 21

$13.00 → $11.00-15.4%

$0$9.90$19.80

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain positive cash flow from operationsCash from operations: $-175.556M
Continue improving operating incomePublished status: Under Pressure
Realize revenue growth from Tesla partnershipQualitative condition
Sustain revenue growth near recent levelsRevenue growth: 52.81%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-67.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sunrun outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a medium confidence level. The company is currently loss-making but has stable management and is working to improve its financial performance amidst sector headwinds.

What's priced into Sunrun

The market seems to have priced in a cheap valuation compared to peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors may have lower expectations for future performance. The current valuation suggests that the stock is seen as justified but not without risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are showing mixed progress, particularly in cash generation and subscriber value. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a slight downward revision in guidance, indicating potential challenges ahead.

What Sunrun hinges on

The thesis hinges on the company's ability to raise guidance in the next quarter and the performance of the sector bellwether NXT. Positive developments in these areas could lead to a favorable shift, while negative trends could pose risks.